saupak ([info]saupak) wrote in [info]worldofwarcraft,
@ 2007-11-05 11:15:00
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No one likes a logical argument, but...
Sorry, but all the whining 13-year olds on the forums have me ready to throw my {work] PC out the window. Let's looks at some facts:

Patch 2.0 to 2.1 took 168 days

Patch 2.1 to 2.2 took 126 days

Currently it’s been 41 days since 2.2 went live. (And remember, the 2.3 PTR wasn't available until at least a week afterwards, so we've only had five weeks of testing at most.)

Looking at the patch notes, the changes coming in 2.3 are just as significant as in 2.1 and 2.2, so the time required to test these changes will be proportional.

Looking at the bugs, 2.3 is just as quirky as 2.1 & 2.2, so the time required to iron all these out will be proportional.

The last two patches were both over 400MB, while currently around 250MB is available on the background downloader.

The patch will not go live on the 13th since Blizzard promised us a two week notice.

The patch will not go live on the 20th since there would be minimal live support available during the holiday week.

The patch will not go live on Christmas for obvious reasons.

The patch will not go live on New Year's Day, again (I hope) for obvious reasons.

So when could we see the patch?

The patch COULD go live the 27th of November, but the likelihood, given it’s the Tuesday after a holiday when most of US is on vacation isn't good. (56 days since last patch)
The patch COULD go live on the 4th of December. (63 days since last patch)
The patch COULD go live on the 11th of December. (70 days since last patch)
The patch COULD go live on the 18th of December. (77 days since last patch)
The patch COULD go live the 8th of January. (98 days since last patch)
The patch COULD go live the 15th of January. (105 days since last patch)
The patch COULD go live the 22nd of January. (112 days since last patch)

I'm betting on the 15th of 22nd of January myself. Thoughts?

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[info]sventhelost
2007-11-05 06:41 pm UTC (link)
"No one likes a math geek, Sully."

:D

I think part of the excitement for 2.3 is that people are actually pausing characters from leveling while waiting for the patch. Why put in more effort now when in [insert unrealistic time expectation here] you can get much further with less effort?

Still. C'mon, 2.3! :D

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[info]katai
2007-11-05 09:28 pm UTC (link)
Thats my thought, I have 3 characters sitting at 20, with more to come :-)

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[info]sventhelost
2007-11-05 09:44 pm UTC (link)
I've got a mage on my old server who's been stuck in his early 30s, plus a couple of new tanking ladies that I've been leveling up together-ish. (The warrior is getting a bit more love than the pally. Not sure if this is just my deep and abiding love for tauren or what. WTB tauren paladin, pls.

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[info]katai
2007-11-05 09:48 pm UTC (link)
Man I hate Tauren, actually just their starting area, I really dislike it, that being said I really want to make a druid...

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[info]sventhelost
2007-11-05 09:52 pm UTC (link)
Welcome to my life as a night elf druid. :) I HATE nelfs. A lot. I can barely stand to stay in caster mode. The stupid emotes, the freaking bounce! Nyah! But I really wanted to be a druid, and my friends were playing alliance, so...

...Yay for shape-shifting!

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[info]smokngoat
2007-11-05 09:40 pm UTC (link)
Agree with the EXP thing and this also leads me to believe that Blizzard will try their best to get it out before Christmas

I'd bet early December myself

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[info]ajamison
2007-11-06 12:40 am UTC (link)
Totally, my new main(s) are a level 30 shaman and a level 46 warlock....rerolling to join some RL friends after raid burnout on a different server.

But yeah, there is no motivation for me to continue with these 2 characters until 2.3 hits!

Come quickly!

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[info]verbis
2007-11-06 03:44 am UTC (link)
Ditto this. A druid, a paladin, a rogue, and a hunter are all sitting at anywhere from 20 to 35 waiting on EXP boost. Meanwhile I stockpile money...

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[info]drakhzilla
2007-11-05 06:44 pm UTC (link)
I'm saying in about 2 or 3 weeks

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[info]elnerdoricardo
2007-11-05 06:46 pm UTC (link)
"The patch will not go live on the 13th since Blizzard promised us a two week notice."

Unless you're referring to something I've not seen... that's not exactly what Blizzard promised.

Blizz promised 2 weeks notice for the end of Arena Season 2. They also said that the start of Season 3 may or *may not* coincide with 2.3 going live.

Unless you've seen something else... if so, please share!

I personally think we'll see it sometime toward the end of this month, perhaps early Dec. Which is fine for me, it allows me to farm more arena and honor points. (I would love to walk into S3 capped out on honor and holding enough Arena points to grab 2 pieces of S3.)

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[info]katai
2007-11-05 09:29 pm UTC (link)
No you are right about Season 2 to Season 3

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[info]mageraine
2007-11-05 06:51 pm UTC (link)
Going off the fact that there was a Christmas-themed cooking recipe waiting in my mailbox when I logged in to the PTR, I'm guessing the patch will coincide with Winter Veil. :) Most likely the 18th.

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[info]heinous_bitca
2007-11-05 08:00 pm UTC (link)
Yes! What was it, some sort of Apple Cider? I forget.

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[info]mageraine
2007-11-05 08:07 pm UTC (link)
That sounds right! I learned it immediately, so I can't remember exactly, but spiced cider or something rings a bell.

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[info]simplypip
2007-11-05 08:12 pm UTC (link)
I received a recipe for red winter clothing on my tailor!

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[info]pyrokinesis
2007-11-05 08:18 pm UTC (link)
I got a boots pattern!

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[info]phoenix_singing
2007-11-05 08:40 pm UTC (link)
I got a boots pattern too. =D

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[info]megarandom
2007-11-05 10:51 pm UTC (link)
I got a rock...

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[info]asciident
2007-11-05 07:06 pm UTC (link)
Given 2.3 PTR is testing some new things for Winter Veil, it's coming before Christmas. The two-week notice was notice before Season 3 starts, and Blizz explicitly said that 2.3 and S3 do not necessarily coincide.

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[info]tridus
2007-11-05 07:07 pm UTC (link)
The "days" indicator here is kind of misleading since 2.2 wasn't a content patch. So we're already at 167 days since the last content patch.

Its pretty crazy when you look at it like that, they really go half a year between content patches? Oh well, thats another thread.

The patch is not going live on the 13th because its not done yet. We're not talking about minor tweaks, they're still class balance changes to the thing regularily.

I'm going with either December 11 or 18th, there will be pressure from up top to have something exciting released before Christmas. The 11th is better since it gives them time to follow up with the emergency 2.3.1 patch thats inevitably required before Christmas.

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[info]glenngunnerzero
2007-11-05 07:41 pm UTC (link)
God I hope not nothing like a 5 hour patch to say Happy Birthday.

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[info]c700
2007-11-05 07:29 pm UTC (link)
Ugh.

They said they'd give us two weeks notice on Season 3, not 2.3.

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[info]shuspidey1218
2007-11-05 07:29 pm UTC (link)
A blue poster on the general forums has already gone on record as saying that the reason 2.2 took so long was technical stuff dealing with voice chat, and that the wait for 2.3 would be significantly less.

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[info]itslily
2007-11-05 08:00 pm UTC (link)
I'm betting before winter break when all the kids will be out of school, personally.

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[info]masteradept
2007-11-05 08:36 pm UTC (link)
hey does anyone have a link to the possible patch notes?

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[info]dr_laxative
2007-11-05 09:03 pm UTC (link)
http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/patchnotes/test-realm-patchnotes.html

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[info]masteradept
2007-11-05 09:30 pm UTC (link)
tyvm

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[info]saraikanagi
2007-11-05 09:36 pm UTC (link)
You also need to take into account that 2.2 was, as stated by Eyonix I believe, quite late due to the fact that the new sound engine was being a real beast and that 2.3 was going to seem faster-paced than other patches because of it.

Another thing to consider is that their private, in-house test server is always, always more up to date than the PTRs and that the PTRs have had tendency to go down before they looked "finished" to our eyes and then lo and behold, there were some changes that we wanted but never saw on the PTRs.

Finally, this is Blizzard's game, not our game, and they'll release the patch when they damn well feel like it even if we feel that it's not complete.

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[info]honem
2007-11-06 12:07 pm UTC (link)
Ya know what I find interesting ?

How people seem to have selective hearing about when Patch 2.3 comes out

They can quote verbatim about so blizzard employee said this and that and how Patch 2.3 will come out faster than 2.2 yet seem to ignore the number of bug threads in the PTR forums (including a stickied one detailing around 157 bugs) .

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html;jsessionid=5EC2E950EC2FF4B8750CCDD26B2C58F8?topicId=2509265802&sid=1

I'm willing to bet Eyonix had no idea there were that many bugs with Patch 2.3 when he said "Oh sure 2.3 will be coming out quick smart")

They're not magicians guys.

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[info]kjpepper
2007-11-05 09:38 pm UTC (link)
I'm gussing first weekish in december... which will give me some time to write up some guild banking tools. :)

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[info]dmaster
2007-11-06 02:11 am UTC (link)
2.3 and arena season 3 aren't connected. They don't need any 2-week notice.

As for limited support on thanksgiving week, I'm willing to bet that you've never worked in a 24hr/7day work environment. Holidays don't exist, most people don't get to take it off, that's just how the jobs work and people who work those sorts of jobs understand and deal with it. They also respect the idea that an American holiday doesn't govern what the entire world does, and that some people that aren't in the US, or for whatever reason don't celebrate an American holiday in their country would still like to be entertained by whatever entertainment product happens to be around.

As for the technicalities of the patch, 2.2 was an abnormal patch. It should have been out very much sooner. 2.3 has been in internal testing for quite a while, because of the delay in the relatively small and useless 2.2 patch where the only major addition was a new sound engine that allowed for voice chat. Blizzard doesn't do things on a timetable, they do them "when it's done". I highly doubt they'll wait until March or April (which would be consistent with your 3+ month gap between patches) for the Sunwell Plateau to come out since that'll essentially be a repeat of Naxx's patch, as the beta test should start up sometime around then if they expect to get the expansion out in 2008. I'm pretty sure they've mentioned that the last raid should get a little more time than Naxx had before it's supplanted by people not giving a crap anymore about the raids after the beta is announced.

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[info]bikerwalla
2007-11-06 03:53 am UTC (link)
This is software engineering, not factory work. It doesn't take X number of days to make "a patch" because there's insane levels of complexity that go into the code for the client AND the servers, through endless cycles of debugging, testing, QA, and then more debugging.

Focusing on "number of days since last new release" is just about THE most stupid measurement I can think of.

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[info]xalit
2007-11-06 05:08 am UTC (link)
Shaman are going to recieve some good news before this patch is finished. They'll need a week to test that, then it'll go live. I expect this before the month is out.

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[info]xalit
2007-11-07 09:59 am UTC (link)
To add!

They removed the diminishing returns on interrupts, pretty much because Shaman cried so hard that their small weight of numbers was felt, just for a moment.

2.3 will arrive, what, 8 days after that change was reverted? Not bad!

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[info]amplifiedmouse
2007-11-07 02:52 am UTC (link)
Burrrnnnnn.


The end.

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[info]evilshrew
2007-11-07 05:28 am UTC (link)
Wow, no one's responded to say that you were way off yet? Oh well, logic is fun to play around with.

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