|
|
|
July 17th, 2009
July 14th, 2009
musicman474747
 | 08:01 pm - And we have TD Five-E!
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
...SPRAWLING DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 680 MILES...1090 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
( Read more... )
|
musicman474747
| 02:48 pm - Carlos now a 100mph Cat 2 hurricane and may be still intensifying
Tiny Carlos has ramped up overnight and into the afternoon with winds now to 100mph as it churns out in the middle of nowhere. It remains an extremely small system, with hurricane force winds only extending out 10 miles from the 10 nautical mile wide pinhole eye. Further strengthening is possible during the next 24hrs. Honestly I think it could be a major hurricane already but if not, it could become one later this afternoon or tonight at the rate things are evolving with the system.
2pm PDT
Where's Waldo Carlos?! Much larger Invest 96E is off to it's northeast.
lol.
Check out the Carlos updating page here: http://community.livejournal.com/w_coast_weather/745269.html
|
musicman474747
 | 03:07 am - Carlos regains hurricane strength...this is a crazy system
After being a tropical storm during the day yesterday, Carlos has just restrengthened back to a Category 1 hurricane...a TINY hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out only 35 miles from the center as the hurricane is literally embedded and following the flow of the ITCZ below 10N. In the past hour as of this post a pinhole eye literally just popped out of the systems cloud deck, banding reformed and the system became it's tiny hurricane-self. I don't think i've ever seen a cyclone this compact and small-scale in the Eastern Pacific before.
2:30am PDT
HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SMALL
EYE...AND THEREFORE CARLOS IS UPGRADED ONCE AGAIN TO A HURRICANE.
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED
ON THE REVISED INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF CARLOS. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1000Z 9.7N 127.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 9.8N 128.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
|
July 13th, 2009
mohnkern
 | 09:16 am - Hurricane Outlook -- Atlantic
NHC Atlantic Outlook
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
|
July 11th, 2009
musicman474747
 | 12:57 pm - Carlos likely a hurricane now
Looking at the latest satellite imagery, an eye has now popped out of the clouds of Carlos and based on the structure it's certainly a 75-80mph hurricane now. It's sitting out in the open ocean, progressing westward and a low-latitude tropical cyclone moving just north of 10N. It's expected to continue to strengthen to possibly a Cat 2 in the coming days and is forecast to reach the Central Pacific Basin as a Cat 1 hurricane mid-week. It's definitely a system Hawaii should keep an eye on as there will be a gradual northward movement in the westward track over the next several days. But it's way too early to tell if the state will have to deal with anything from Carlos. Shear is expected to increase as it approaches the Basin (wind shear being a common feature of the basin). El Nino-toasted waters of 28-29C dominate the path of Carlos for the next few days, much warmer than the waters have been in the region for the past two years. Waters in the Central Pacific range in the 27-28C range with 26C waters extending north and east of Hawaii.
There's nothing else of consequence in the Eastern or Central Pacific so far. The remnant swirl of Tropical Storm Blanca is finally dying out several hundred miles southwest of Southern CA after days of producing minor showers and thunderstorms. There's also a new disorganized cluster of thunderstorms well to the east of Carlos that has a low-chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48hrs, but could become more organized during that time.
|
July 10th, 2009
musicman474747
| 12:26 pm - We have TD Four-E...could become a hurricane in the next several days
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.4N 112.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
|
July 9th, 2009
cieldumort
 | 07:49 pm - El Niño Has Arrived
El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 July 9, 2009 NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months. 
Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July 1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño. Animation. High resolution (Credit: NOAA) NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10. “Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. El Niño's impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires. El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia. An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean. These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals. In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006. El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns. NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009. NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html
|
July 8th, 2009
major7
 | 08:29 pm - No Hurricanes In The Atlantic
so here's something cool
|
floundah
 | 08:13 pm - POTD(s) Local storms and waterspouts in RI and MA
Meghan Miller surveyed the damage to her home on Edge Hill Road in Hopkinton with her grandfather, Richard Martin, after a possible tornado hit areas in Hopkinton this afternoon. (Barry Chin/Globe Photo) (http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/07/tornado_warning_1.html)
So we had some weather today not far from my Dad's house. Here is a slideshow of waterspouts and funnel clouds in RI. Here is more storm damage in MA. Here's another slideshow where there is a picture of a boy making snow angels out of hailstones!
And here's the official report that went with it:
( Read more... )
|
July 6th, 2009
musicman474747
| 11:13 am - And then were was Blanca
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009
...BLANCA STRENGTHENS...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT 410
MILES...665 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
( Read more... )
|
July 3rd, 2009
coitalimprov
 | 03:22 pm - Severe storms galore
This is at least the fifth or sixth day in a row we've had a severe thunderstorm in Providence!! I'm loving this, but can't help but wish the Sun would come back... closing windows/unplugging appliances on the daily is getting monotonous.
Oh, and check out that invest in the central Atlantic.. what do ya think? I'm thinking nothing will come of it.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
RIC001-003-007-031930-
/O.CON.KBOX.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-090703T1930Z/
BRISTOL RI-PROVIDENCE RI-KENT RI-
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KENT...SOUTHEASTERN PROVIDENCE AND NORTHERN BRISTOL
COUNTIES IN RHODE ISLAND...
AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WARWICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THREE QUARTER
INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED IN WARWICK AT 310 PM.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PROVIDENCE...EAST PROVIDENCE AND BARRINGTON
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Current Location: The Shiondevicks
Current Mood: another rained out birthday :(
Current Music: motion city soundtrack - antonia
|
July 2nd, 2009
musicman474747
 | 06:15 pm - Wow, some impressive open letter to Congress by those who oppose Global Warming Theory
In other words, not really. But I'll post it anyways.
TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES: YOU ARE BEING DECEIVED ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING
You have recently received an Open Letter from the Woods Hole Research Center, exhorting you to act quickly to avoid global disaster. The letter purports to be from independent scientists, but that Center is the former den of the President's science advisor, John Holdren, and is far from independent. This is the same science advisor who has given us predictions of “almost certain” thermonuclear war or eco-catastrophe by the year 2000, and many other forecasts of doom that somehow never seem to arrive on time.
( Read more... )
|
June 27th, 2009
floundah
| 11:26 am - POTD(s) Insanely beautiful pictures
You just have to *clicky here.* Warning: The pictures, about 35 of them, are huge.
These are from the ISS, including a bunch of crazy pictures of Sarychev Peak Volcano erupting. The astronauts must have been using a very high resolution camera because it looks like they are closer to the plume than than they probably were.
Earth is always showing off, but IMHO, this week has been particularly spectacular.
Credits: ISS, NASA/JSC
Current Mood: Awed
|
June 26th, 2009
June 25th, 2009
floundah
| 05:34 pm - POTD: This is the problem with building too near the water.
We had some minor flooding along the coast up here due to the Astronomical high tide. It's still sad to see these pretty little cottages go, however.
Credit: Vincent DeWitt for the Boston Globe
( Read more... )
|
floundah
| 02:54 pm - Question for you guys:
Why does the NWS always have their text reports and warnings in all caps? Is it to save time when something is being typed out? It makes it very hard to read them. Even a non-emergency statement will look like shouting. For example, here's an excerpt from http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS:
SUMMARY OF LIGHTNING SAFETY TIPS FOR INSIDE THE HOME
1. AVOID CONTACT WITH CORDED PHONES
2. AVOID CONTACT WITH ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT OR CORDS. IF YOU PLAN
TO UNPLUG ANY ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT, DO SO WELL BEFORE THE
STORM ARRIVES.
3. AVOID CONTACT WITH PLUMBING. DO NOT WASH YOUR HANDS, DO NOT
TAKE A SHOWER, DO NOT WASH DISHES, AND DO NOT DO LAUNDRY.
4. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS, AND STAY OFF PORCHES.
5. DO NOT LIE ON CONCRETE FLOORS AND DO NOT LEAN AGAINST CONCRETE
WALLS.
LIGHTNING FACT FOR THE DAY: THE AVERAGE FLASH OF LIGHTNING CONTAINS
ENOUGH ELECTRICITY TO LIGHT A 100 WATT LIGHT BULB FOR MORE THAN
3MONTHS.
LIGHTNING QUESTION OF THE DAY: IS IT SAFE TO TALK ON A CELL OR
CORDLESS PHONE DURING A THUNDERSTORM?
ANSWER: COMPARED TO TALKING ON A CORDED PHONE, THE CORDLESS PHONE IS
MUCH LESS OF A HAZARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MOMENTARY RISK OF BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING WHEN THE PHONE IS BEING REMOVED FROM THE CRADLE.
ONCE OUT OF THE CRADLE, IT IS SAFE TO USE A CORDLESS PHONE DURING A
THUNDERSTORM, PROVIDED, OF COURSE, THAT YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
Just curious.
P:S.: I chose this example because it's Lightning Awareness Week.
Current Mood: curious
|
June 23rd, 2009
musicman474747
| 05:12 pm - Andres becomes a hurricane
The hurricane hunters confirmed that Andres became a hurricane at least by 2pm this afternoon and likely late this morning. Currently it has winds of 75mph, although low-level dry air from the Mexican deserts are drying out the northern half of the circulation. Winds and heavy rains are battering the Mexican West Coast as the system moves northwestward parallel to the shoreline. Southern Baja is under threat from Andres which could pass just to the south as a tropical storm late tomorrow night/early thursday.
( AP News Clip on Andres )
|
June 22nd, 2009
cieldumort
| 01:46 pm - It's Hurricane Week All This Week On TWC
And We Already Have Two Headline Interests
In The Tropics We're Talking About!
Strengthening Tropical Storm Andres & Bay of Campache Invest
Image credit: Weather.com Map Room
The Weather Channel Hurricane Week Live reports and safety tips. Hurricane Week
|
|
|
![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/community.gif){kind=small}
twc_aficionados
