I'm really hoping that people aren't stupid enough to let the Tories win. Surely there are still enough voters alive who remember the Thatcher years to ensure that won't happen for at least another couple of decades. Surely?

But I reckon Labour's hold will continue to crumble. I just hope it's the Lib Dems who'll benefit, not the Tories.

If he Tories do win, I expect relations between Westminster and Holyrood will become very interesting indeed.

I think that's a forlorn hope.

*sigh*

Like so many of my hopes and dreams. But if I gave in to depsair, I'd never get out of bed in the morning! :)

Surely there are still enough voters alive who remember the Thatcher years to ensure that won't happen for at least another couple of decades.

Exactly the opposite of what my parents were saying in 1997, regarding the Winter of Discontent and massive tax rises, and how surely nobody would vote in Labour...

The majority of the country, so far as I can tell, sits in the middle ground, and doesn't really care who's in charge, so long as they aren't taking their power for granted and failing to run things too well. The Tories got voted out for looking utterly incompetent and smug - Labour are probably going to get voted out for the same reasons.

I think people care much more about single issues than parties these days, and very few people find that one party entirely represents their views.

*nod* That's my problem right there.

The Tories got voted out for looking utterly incompetent and smug

Here in Scotland, they got voted out for a lot more than that, I can assure you.

Although they only ever had a token presence up here anyway, so it seems odd to talk about voting them out, because we never voted them in in the first place!

*cough* Andy's in Scotland.

But also, it's not really fair to say they got voted out in Scotland. They were never voted in in the first place—they had, what, one MP the whole time, maybe two?

(despite having more votes than the Lib Dems, stupid voting system)

But the "remember Thatcher" argument is now as dead in the water as as "they let the bodies go unburied" was in '92/'97, by the time of the next GE a chunk of voters weren't born when Thatcher was last in office, and an even bigger chunk can't remember her that much (anyone born after 1980ish simply won't care about Thatcher).

Cameron's "change" rhetoric may be pure PR, but it's all that's really needed—Govts lose elections, oppositions merely need to not be awful, which is what Cameron has managed.

Govts lose elections, oppositions merely need to not be awful, which is what Cameron has managed.

Yup. It's what I was saying a while back on a similar post, about people always becoming dissatisfied with whichever government is in power at any given time.

Simply by not being in power and not being too obviously horrendous, the other parties become increasingly attractive to the electorate.

I'm hoping for a hung parliment with Lib-Dems holding the balance of power, and going with anyone who will promise a referendum on PR within the following year...

Hmm. The problem with a referendum on PR is that most of the media will actively campaign against it on the grounds that they won't be able to predict who has won by looking at how big the piles are any more, and if a referendum is lost, we're all screwed for at least another generation... God, I'm so cheerful today, aren't I?

Tories won't offer coalition. They'd be mad to, and are more likely to go for a minority administration same as Wilson did in '74. Definitely no chance of a referendum from Cameron as is, it'd piss of the Idiot Party backwoods too much.

And the Lib Dems propping a 'failed' 'losing' Labour Govt in order to get it in would be even worse, both for the party and for public perception of electoral reform. Having said all that, the odds of a 'balanced' Parlt where either 'big' party could form a coalition is minimal, most recent analysis said 5%, the maths just don't favour it—much more likely is one or the other of the big two are the only option.

I really hate FPTP and the distortions it brings in.

Sadly, I think this is entirely accurate. And that is sad, because it means the UK is made up of conservatives, and people who think it's ever acceptable to vote conservative (ie: people with short memories). And so we are, as you say, royally fucked.

I hadn't previously considered the possibility of a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest single party; actually, though, that sounds about right to me, based on present trends. I don't think a lot of the people who voted Tory recently are actually that enthused by the Conservatives and I don't think the next general election will follow the recent locals so closely - but just as equally, I think you're right about Labour and the trend is downwards for them.

(Oh, and hello, by the way! *waves*)

Hello!

I agree that it's unlikely that lots of people are enthused by Cameron's Tories, but I recall being distinctly unimpressed by New Labour and they still had a huge landslide. People I know below the age of about 27 do seem to be genuinely enthused by the Tories, and that worries me.

but I'd wager most of them won't get around to voting, and certainly not donating cash to the party.

Annoyingly that is the group that we lib dems are totally failing to win, despite being arguably the best fit. *sigh*

This is because they completely buy into the wasted vote bollocks.

More than that, I think we're not different enough from the other two parties - as the third party, we need to stick out rather than be seen as in-between or the same as the others.

Unfortunately the westminster echochamber of journo's and politico's have no interest in that, and the carear politicos in the party who have never had an outsider perspective of Cowley St, Westminster and London just don't get it and always push for watering down of anything radical be it policies on Trident, Drugs or Prostitution.

Yes, I always get pissed off when people talk about wasted votes. The only wasted vote is the one that's not cast at all!

As borne out by the figures my cousin provided here.

Mind if I quote/link to that in another post?

Feel free. :)

Ah, depends on what meaning of "wasted" you mean. There's an actual academic definition that's useful for analysis, and there's huge evidence that points to voting behaviour being influenced as much by tactical/rational options as by pure expressive "I like this bloke best". Here's a damn fine article on the subject:
http://voting.taktix.org/2006/09/18/tactical-voting-myths-and-reality/

See, said it was good, right? I really need to start writing that sort of thing more often.

I can't call this one, really. I agree that Labour have alienated a large number of people who voted for them in '97 and '01. A lot of people swung to Labour then simply because they were the realistic alternative to the Tories, and sadly I have to agree that a huge proportion of those will simply not bother voting this time, as they'll think "Labour = shit, Tories = shit, LibDems = no hope so why bother?" I reckon that unless there is a huge sea-change from Labour in the next couple of years, the 2009/2010 election will give the Tories a very slight majority, around 20-30 seats.

It is, I know, somewhat foolishly optimistic to hope for something like the following:
Labour: 250 seats (-106)
Conservative: 250 seats (+52)
LibDems: 116 seats (+54)
But I can hope, even when I know the chances of it are about as likely as me winning the FA Cup.

It's worse than that for Labour. I don't think those people who switched to them in 97 can be called core labour voters.

However, I know loads of "old labour" voters who stuck with the party in 97 because they had hope that once in power the party would return to its roots. These people have been slowly defecting since about 99. The 10p tax fiasco has been the last straw for huge numbers of them; they have finally realised that it's not a Labour party any more, but a clinging to power by chasing the Daily Mail party, and they are disgusted both with the party, and themselves for voting for it.

This is why Labour were completely unable to get leaflets delivered etc. for the local elections just gone; their activists, the true believers, have deserted them in droves.

Where, oh where are we going to gain another 54 seats from, especially given some of the lousy candidates we've got (Elizabeth Shenton, I'm looking at you). Too much mince and not enough Vince in the party at the moment.

Like I said, foolishly optimistic. :(

My guess is that it will be a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party, some sort of deal being cooked up with the SNP and/or DUP on the basis that they do not vote against the Conservative's 'English' legislation.

As to what difference it will make, not a great deal I would imagine in terms of what happens on a day to day basis. I would suspect though that there will be a pretty big change after the next general election with Scotland voting to cease to be part of the United Kingdom, regardless of whether it is a Conservative or Labour goverment.

Comments thread on the poll at LDV is, um interesting:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/new-poll-what-will-be-the-result-of-the-next-general-election-2662.html

I really like Adrian, but I think he's way off base on it. Stephen defends it here:
http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/2008/05/perils-of-choosing-lib-dem-voice-poll.html

Still don't see a majority for Cameron, too many will stop at the last minute, and part of Blair's majority was Lib Dems willing to tacitly stand aside and vote tactically, that isn't going to happen (this time around) with Cameron—maybe if Labour get back in it'll happen next time but I doubt it.

OTOH, maybe Adrian's right, Tories win, Lib Dems official opposition, Labour third. That'd be interesting...

It would, but it ain't never going to happen, oh psephological one, and you know it. People are so sick of Labour, right now, if there was an election tomorrow, we'd be squeezed.

Oh yeah, we would, in those areas held by LAbour with Tories 2nd (like where we live, notionally).

But in a lot of the country, especially northern cities, LAbour vote collapses, we win—Sheffield and Liverpool are prime examples of that.

If the Labour vote really does collapse, we benefit in a fair chunk of the country—I'd need to look at numbers to say exactly how.

I don't know what it's like elsewhere in the country, but down here there's a huge amount of "what's this candidate going to do for our area?" and "is he Cornish?" which influences the voting.

It's generally a 2 horse race in our constituency between the Tories and the LibDems - and the Tories won for years until Andrew George came along. I don't think there's any doubt that we will remain LibDem in our area.

If you take all that away, take the Lib Dems out of the equation and ask if I'd vote Labour OR Tory...then sorry - I'd vote Tory. I'd vote for almost any party to get those smug bastards out.

If you take all that away, take the Lib Dems out of the equation and ask if I'd vote Labour OR Tory...then sorry - I'd vote Tory. I'd vote for almost any party to get those smug bastards out.

Same here right now; despite the baleful presence of the awful, awful people in the Cornerstone Group, and believe me I'd need a Toynbee-sized clothes peg. While ID cards and the NIR remain on the agenda, I will never, ever vote Labour.

Fortunately it's academic because where I live is a winnable marginal with a damned good LibDem candidate in David Ward. Other people near me aren't quite so lucky.

My view is that New Labour has totally alienated its core vote by prostituting itself to Big Business.
Labour's core voters will thus not vote (for anyone).

The Tories' core demographic HATES Labour - even when it enacts Tory policies (e.g. fees for students, break-up & privatisation of the Post Office & NHS, Orwellian ‘security’ laws) - so their core vote will turn out massively.

The ‘floating voters’ (does this phrase conjure up images containing the words 'Armitage Shanks' for anyone else?) that all the main parties try so hard to pursue are pissed-off with New Labour, so will vote for whichever Party they think has the best chance of defeating it.
In practice, this means that they will vote Tory too.

Result?
A Tory majority in Parliament, on the lowest turnout in History, with the outcome that the entire country is given away to Big Business.

Apart from a massive expansion in the commissioning of Nuclear Power Stations (owned & operated by Big Business, paid for by taxation), I predict the privatisation of the Prison service, and a simultaneous ‘Law & Order’ crackdown.
Including the priority-one construction of Michael Howard's inherently-error-prone National ID database (run by Big Business, paid for by taxation).
i.e. the criminalisation & imprisonment of more and more of the poor, at the taxpayer's expense, whilst the (Tory) owners of the Prisons will make lots & lots of guaranteed Lovely Profit out of the arrangement.
Yay!

You will also see a further shift of taxation on to the poor, and away from the Rich.
Braying Dave Cameron can sell such a policy as 'green', as it would, naturally, be based on Purchase Carbon Taxes; where the end-user ‘polluter’ pays.

I also expect a Cameron Govt. to push 'choice' in Education by the imposition of Vouchers for it - a measure that taxes the poor to pay the Wealthy.
But there will be no 'level playing field' in the education ‘Market’ created by regulating & Inspecting fee-paid schools to even one tenth the degree that LEA-run schools are, natch. Or by forcing Private schools to take poor disruptive pupils.

Ditto Health Vouchers, and Road Pricing (also sold with the flat-out LIE that "it's a 'green' tax!").

Oh, and another reduction in Corporation Tax, to be paid for by raising National Insurance, VAT, & fuel taxes.

In short, once the Tories get back in, we are all fucked - except, that is, for the members of the hereditarily-wealthy/shareholding classes.

We are, IMO, only ONE Tory Govt away from a return to those ’Good Old Days’ that obtained in this country prior to WW1.

Days when the rich had easy access to the best education & healthcare system in the World, and a ready & cheap supply of servants.
And the poor lived out their nasty, brutish & short lives in the ghastly slums owned by the same people who owned the unsafe, polluting factories where they worked such long hours.
Dying of easily-prevented diseases.
There will be a couple of differences between Then & Now, obviously - there are no more factories in the UK for instance (they're cheaper to build & run in the Third World). So that'll be more Child Prostitution then.
And the Demon Gin, knuckle-dusters, coshes & knives of the past are now Crack Cocaine, machetes, semi-automatic 9mm pistols & Mac-10 sub-machine guns.

But who cares?
The poor ‘indolent’ can just die in the slums, or be imprisoned for failing to pay their rent.

The (Armed) Police will protect the homes & property of the Rich from predation by these ‘terrorists’.


IMO, we are also not very many Tory Govts away from a return to the imposition of a Property Qualification for the Franchise (I can explain why I think this, should anyone be masochistic enough to ask me).

Gah!

I am worried that you are almost completely correct.