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I went to a meeting of the (newly formed) Brighouse Branch of the Lib Dems yesterday. While discussing the campaigning part of the agenda, one of the things we touched upon was the national party's policy of Seat Targeting - which is to say that because the party is poor (not having the financial support of big business like the Tories, or the Unions like Labour) and ignored by the media (who, for their own ends, like the FPTP system and having a duopoly of power because it makes things easy for lazy journalists), we necessarily have to concentrate resources in those seats where we think we can win. This means that Target Seats get activists and campaigners (and money) parachuted in by Cowley Street when election time rolls around, and non-Target seats get left to fend for themselves, with half the local activists having been parachuted out by Cowley Street.

This makes sense from a point of view of limited resources, but what concerns my is who does the maths to decide which seat is a Target?

Take Calder Valley, for example. Here are the figures from last time:



Now, any psephologist based in the Westminster Bubble is going to look at that, and dismiss Calder Valley as a potential Lib Dem target Seat. The problem being, things have changed massively since 2005. Chris McCafferty has announced her intention to stand down at the next election and retire. Chris McCafferty won last time because she has been a bloody good local MP, and despite her party affiliation. Her personal popularity is not going to transfer to her successor, Janet Oosthuysen, who has been unfavourably painted by the press as an irrational bunny-boiler who can't control her temper. If you look at the make-up of the local council, you can see how hugely the Labour vote has collapsed.

The council is No Overall Control, with the Tories a couple ahead of us, and Labour a distant third. However, despite the council being nominally a NoC, the cabinet which makes all the decisions is totally Tory. This is MASSIVELY resented by huge swathes of local people, who feel disenfranchised. This feeling is added to by the fact that within a week of the local elections, one of ours defected to the Tories when he had been elected in a Ward which has been safe Liberal since 1974. The local Tories, meanwhile, are so overconfident that they are putting up candidates who have been convicted of electoral fraud and forgery in the belief that the people of Calder Valley are so stupid that they will vote for even a criminal, as long as he is wearing a blue rosette. Worryingly, it appears that they might be right in some wards.

So, the Labour vote has collapsed, and despite the fact that there IS a large Tory vote, there is also a large anti-Tory vote. It's by no means a foregone conclusion, but it's entirely possible that, with the right candidate, we could win this seat. I believe we have the right candidate. I've met Hilary. She's forthright, liberal, and intelligent. She's someone I will happily put my cross next to, and will happily encourage others to do likewise.

The problem is that psephologist in Cowley Street. Is (s)he going to look at us, and say we came third there last time, we've got no chance and cut off all funding to us in favour of a more winnable seat? I think that's pretty much a certainty.

Which means that if we're going to be winning here we're going to have to do it on our own. Which is going to mean work.

Arse.

Life is so much easier when you can be lazy.