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25 July 2008 @ 10:56 am
Glesgae - Oh Shit  
The Honourable Lady Mark's efforts notwithstanding, we lost our deposit. This is unsurprising, given that (aside from the question of independence) the SNP are pretty much a clone of us, even down to party colours. It's a bit worrying to be beaten by the Tories in Scotland, which is a bit like losing to the BNP in Brixton, but hopefully the fact that they have lost their third safest seat in Scotland will send a message to New Labour. How much longer can Gordon bury his head in the sand?

The reason main for the Oh shit in the title, though, is the spectre of Scottish independence. The Scots hate the Tories, and we're heading for a Tory government next time without a shadow of a doubt. The Scots will therefore make a BIG noise. The Tories will not put up TOO big a fight against Scottish independence, because most of the constraints on Tory power come from North of the border. I honestly can see our ancient union rent asunder in the not-too-distant future.

The thing is, I have no doubt that Scottish independence might be an alluring prospect for the Scots, although it would cause enormous upheaval for them and might not leave them as well off as they'd like... If I were Scottish, I know that I would seriously consider the idea that freedom would be worth being a bit financially worse off. The problem is that without Scotland the political landscape of the UK suddenly becomes incredibly unbalanced. Now, on the plus side, given the current projections for what will happen at the next election, this would probably leave us as the official opposition. But on the down side, the Tories would have SUCH a huge majority that there would be no prospect of any effective opposition and no fetters on the repulsive Dorries.

Is it too late for Yorkshire to apply for the border to be moved so that we're in Scotland? I men, William Wallace DID conquer us at one point...
 
 
Current Mood: cynical
 
 
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Mat Bowles: Better Politics[info]matgb on July 25th, 2008 10:33 am (UTC)
beaten by the Tories in Scotland, which is a bit like losing to the BNP in Brixton

Point of fact: the Conservative and Unionist party (Scottish Conservatives this week I believe) normally get more votes than the LDs in Scotland, but the LD vote is overwhelming concentrated in certain constituencies ("the Celtic Fringe of old"), in PR elections the Tories get more seats than the LDs.

But yeah, I concur on the main point—Scottish independence would mean reform of the HoC/Lords, which'd have to lead to electoral reform, which would ameliorate things a fair bit, but it's still not good. I likes being English, British and European.

But I refer the honourable lady to my regular suggestions of devolution for Yorkshire—UKIP are convinced that any sort of regionalism/provincialism/whatever is the first step to abolish England and thus make it impossible to leave the EU...
rhythmaning[info]rhythmaning on July 25th, 2008 07:19 pm (UTC)
"I likes being English, British and European." That'd be because you're English - with privilege and power. I am not sure many Scots see Bristish as an option.
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:38 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 26th, 2008 10:25 am (UTC)
meegat: Ben face bovvered[info]meegat on July 25th, 2008 10:53 am (UTC)
I must admit, I shrug my shoulders at Scottish Independence.

I'm in the "You want independence? Fine...sod off then and we'll stop sending billions north of the border."

I'm all for independence as long as they pay for it themselves. Like Cornwall. There's a campaign for independence down here - which is fine - but I wouldn't want any funding from the English parliament for it. Why should people in, say Yorkshire, pay because the Cornish want independence?

And - if it fucks off the EU (bunch of useless wankers) and it means they take Gordon and the rest of his cronies back up there then Go Scotland!

And with the way New Labour is going? Could the tories be any worse? Not that I'm voting for them. I'm not. I'm sticking with our rather brilliant Lib Dem MP, Andrew George.
Notes from extinction: angels[info]pickwick on July 25th, 2008 12:03 pm (UTC)
The Scottish subsidy thing is a bit of an English media myth, actually. Most of England (and Ireland, and Wales) is also subsidised by the South-East to the same or a great extent, because that's where the big firms are.
~ - [info]pmoodie on July 25th, 2008 12:38 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 25th, 2008 07:26 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]pickwick on July 25th, 2008 07:30 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]xiv_gemina on July 25th, 2008 09:06 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 26th, 2008 10:19 am (UTC)
Paul Alexander Mudie[info]pmoodie on July 25th, 2008 12:39 pm (UTC)
And with the way New Labour is going? Could the tories be any worse?

Yes.
~ - [info]lizw on July 25th, 2008 02:52 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]pmoodie on July 25th, 2008 03:34 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]lizw on July 25th, 2008 04:17 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]pmoodie on July 25th, 2008 05:03 pm (UTC)
~ - (Anonymous) on July 25th, 2008 10:57 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]diblemming.blogspot.com on July 25th, 2008 10:58 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]lizw on July 27th, 2008 08:09 am (UTC)
~ - [info]xiv_gemina on July 25th, 2008 09:11 pm (UTC)
endless psychologist[info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:40 pm (UTC)
Ill informed much?

You won't be getting the Billions flowing out of Scotland coming south.

But if you want to perpetuate the myth of Scots as subsidy hungry jocks carry on. It will likely hasten our departure.
~ - [info]xiv_gemina on July 25th, 2008 09:49 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:53 pm (UTC)
(Anonymous) on July 25th, 2008 11:10 am (UTC)
"the SNP are pretty much a clone of us"

I disagree actually. At least in terms of ideology. My dad who is scots born and bred still refers to the SNP as the Tartan Tories. You don't have to scratch far under the surface to find a rather nasty, conservative, reactionary underbelly to them. Hence their current demonisation of young people.
Liz Williams[info]lizw on July 25th, 2008 04:18 pm (UTC)
I used to be an SNP member, and my experience was that most members were very close to the Lib Dems in their views.
rhythmaning[info]rhythmaning on July 25th, 2008 07:33 pm (UTC)
I am with you on this - I don't think the SNP are a clone of the LibDems. Their proposal for local income tax is anything but local. They are in favour of centralisation rather than devolving power (kind of ironic) - although their single outcome agreements with local authorities devolve the responsibility but not the abiltiy (they enable the SNP to duck the issue and say, "not our fault, the councils didn't deliver").

I vote LibDem; I could never vote SNP!
endless psychologist[info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:16 pm (UTC)
Michty me.

Look at the constituencies the Lib Dems have taken in Scotland. Look at the party that formerly represented them. The Lib Dems were for quite some time the Tory alternative of choice.

The SNP tartan tories label is massively out of date and probably stems from the fact that good old Banffshire used to be an approximation of a safe Scottish tory seat. That and the SNP used to be a highly factional party containing as it did both the left and the right. It would probably be as far to refer to them as the tartan Trots as much as tories.

Andrew Ducker[info]andrewducker on July 25th, 2008 11:10 am (UTC)
The support for independence will no doubt skyrocket if there's a Tory government. Last I checked it was still below 50% though.

Of course, if there was a better election system in the UK then losing Scotland wouldn't be so bad...
endless psychologist[info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:11 pm (UTC)
The "not sures" have it at present.

Damn those swing voters.

That said never trust polls on Scottish Independence.
Notes from extinction[info]pickwick on July 25th, 2008 12:05 pm (UTC)
If I were Scottish, I know that I would seriously consider the idea that freedom would be worth being a bit financially worse off.

*nods* This is pretty much my position. The latest analogy I've been using is of leaving home - you don't live with your parents forever just because it's cheaper and you don't have any responsibilities, eventually you want your own life. And it's not because you don't love your parents, it's just natural.

I think Yorkshire would be welcome in our independent little country, though!

Edited at 2008-07-25 12:06 pm (UTC)
Paul Alexander Mudie[info]pmoodie on July 25th, 2008 12:36 pm (UTC)
but hopefully the fact that they have lost their third safest seat in Scotland will send a message to New Labour.

Scotland are traditionally good at sending these little messages, but then Westminster is also traditionally very good at ignoring them, so I wouldn't get your hopes up.

I'm frankly amazed that the Tories did so much better than the Lib Dems. I find that deeply worrying, because if the SNP stop being the Scottish protest vote of choice against the Labour government, then things could go very pear-shaped up here indeed. I don't know why the Lib Dems do so badly up here. I can only assume they have some kind of image problem with the average Scot. I hope they do something about that, and soon!

I share your trepidation about the prospect of the Tories and the SNP facing off against each other over Hadrian's Wall. I voted for devolution, but I've never been very convinced about independence. But it's looking increasingly likely that it could happen in the not too distant future. May we all live in interesting times...

May I say that Scotland would be delighted to absorb Yorkshire, but you'll have to do something about that accent! :P

Edited at 2008-07-25 12:40 pm (UTC)
rhythmaning[info]rhythmaning on July 25th, 2008 07:36 pm (UTC)
I don't think it is a question of the Tories and the SNP facing off to each other - I think both would relish the possibility: the SNP get Scotland; and the Tories get England...
‮hjap‮[info]gominokouhai on July 25th, 2008 03:28 pm (UTC)
> Is it too late for Yorkshire to apply for the border to be moved so that we're in Scotland?

We'd be delighted to have you.

signed,

pajh
Representing the views of every single Scot ever
rhythmaning: Armed Forces[info]rhythmaning on July 25th, 2008 07:37 pm (UTC)
...but only after Scotland has reclaimed Northumberland, surely...?
I could crush you with my voice: doctor who : need a crumpet[info]strangefrontier on July 25th, 2008 05:01 pm (UTC)
I've always considered Scottish independence or devolution or whatever to be really fucking stupid. One species on one planet - stop pissing about with borders and chopping up our geography into smaller and smaller chunks. It only creates more bureaucracy and xenophobia.

Damn, I'm such a grump about this! Bloody humans, so parochial.
Notes from extinction: save the doctor[info]pickwick on July 25th, 2008 07:28 pm (UTC)
Makes some sense as long as you also object to every other country that gets independence or devolved power - the former USSR countries, former Yugoslavia, the Czech Republic, even Belgium these days.

But realistically, there need to be some kind of administrative groupings, and there will always be cultural groupings by the very nature of people. Scottish independence will just be a smaller grouping, and it'll be much more integrated with the EU than Britain is, so in a way it's doing the opposite to what you're saying.
Paul Alexander Mudie[info]pmoodie on July 26th, 2008 11:26 pm (UTC)
I agree with you in principle, and if governments treated all the people they're supposed to be responsible for equally, then there wouldn't be a problem. But they don't. And that's why I voted for devolution.
rhythmaning[info]rhythmaning on July 27th, 2008 10:43 am (UTC)
The SNP line is independence as a small country within a stronger EU, as I understand it>.
rhythmaning: Armed Forces[info]rhythmaning on July 25th, 2008 07:16 pm (UTC)
Writing as a resident (though not native) of Scotland - and (deliberately) without reading any of the other comments...

  • few Scots - at least few that I talk to - actually want independence
  • most people think that Salmond is pretty canny - he is playing a good game, not necessary with any substance behind it
  • the finances don't stack up
  • indenpendence would be an administrative nightmare
  • it would however benefit the Tories (since Labour would lose the influence of all its Scottish MPs - there would be a Tory government forever; or maybe a Lib-Lab coaliation?)
  • the Glasgow East result was bye-election government bashing - I look forward to seeing how the seat goes at the next general, or Scottish, election
  • the SNP Scottish Government haven't actually done much - though they have taken credit for a lot
endless psychologist[info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:19 pm (UTC)
Central belt Scot perhaps?

Also speaking as a resident Scot...

Most people are fairly happy with the Scottish Government and are shocked by how much Scottish Labour appears to have disintegrated.

The finances of the Union don't stack up particularly well either. The "Scotland will run at a loss" argument is kinda stupid given the loss the entire UK runs at.
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:48 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 27th, 2008 10:45 am (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 26th, 2008 10:24 am (UTC)
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 26th, 2008 01:54 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 27th, 2008 10:49 am (UTC)
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:43 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 26th, 2008 10:30 am (UTC)
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:46 pm (UTC)
~ - [info]rhythmaning on July 26th, 2008 10:35 am (UTC)
~ - [info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:49 pm (UTC)
endless psychologist[info]endless_psych on July 25th, 2008 09:09 pm (UTC)
The SNP are clones of the Lib dems?

I think not.
[info]diblemming.blogspot.com on July 25th, 2008 11:03 pm (UTC)
Wow. I read this post just a short time after reading this one (http://liberalengland.blogspot.com/2008/07/can-uk-survive-and-do-we-care.html), which comes to the same conclusion as you about the future of Scotland but takes the opposite point of view about how to feel about it. And I have to say that this is one of what I predict will be very rare occurences of me disagreeing with you, if only because his arguments resound better with me.
Mat Bowles[info]matgb on July 26th, 2008 12:02 am (UTC)
Steph—validate your email address for LJ then in theory your links show up properly, OpenID comments get spam stripped of code :-(

I shall read Mr Calder in the morning, but given my long stated opposition to little England/Scotlandism I might disagree—I mostly concur with Jennie, which is normal.
~ - [info]miss_s_b on July 26th, 2008 12:10 am (UTC)
(Anonymous) on July 26th, 2008 03:08 pm (UTC)
Hate the Tories... well....
As I was saying to someone when out canvassing in GE the national stereotype of being miserly is really just an misinterpretation of our being thrifty. What Scots really hate is (a) corruption and (b) politicians paying most of their attention to the South of England. If the Lib Dems continue to nominate strong local candidate (such as Will Rennie and Ian Robertson) this can only work out well for us, as New Labour currently enjoy a reputation North of the Border about equal to the Tories, and the SNP are clearly dying for a chance to become corrupt. From what I've seen there isn't a Nat going that wouldn't gladly pay for the opportunity to sell their own grandmother.

Take home lesson folks: stay honest, stay liberal, hang in there.