First post, though I've lurked here for quite a while now. I finally have something I find interesting enough to talk about, thanks to a friend of mine (a Like-Minded Individual, as it happens).

Okay, so depending on science to save us is definitely not the way to go, but there's a really interesting article here: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html

If that pans out, how cool would that be? Finding a way to reduce fuel consumption is the way to go. I live in a place where we have abundant hydroelectricity, so going electric is less of a concern for me, but 90% of the world (not a real statistic) gets their electricity from fossil fuels, which doesn't actually solve the problem.

Thoughts? This is outside my field of expertise, and the article is kind of vague about how realistic it would be to expect this soon.

Current Mood: chipper

Just spotted this article link on Survivalblog.com. Around halfway down they explain the actual method and materials, which involved a cobalt catalyst to make the process of converting water into hydrogen and oxygen gases much less energy intensive. Here's hoping this is real and not another Cold Fusion hoax. That doesn't make the hydrogen any less explosive, but water is a much cheaper and more dependable battery material than say, nickel or lead, and less toxic too. So, how much energy to compress and chill the gases for storage? Does that wreck the EROEI? Yeah, it probably does.

Tags: solar power
Current Mood: blah
Current Music: "Cold" by The Cure

Whenever the topic of air travel comes up in the peak oil community, there seems to be an almost vindictive glee accompanied by predictions of its total demise. I'm a long time commercial aviation buff, and do not ever see it ceasing to exist. Between time saved, and the efficiency of the turbine engine (they consume a lot of fuel, but return a lot of work in exchange), it just has too much going for it.

This said, the writing is on the wall that this coming fall could be real ugly for United States air carriers. Demand for seats is falling faster than the airlines are cutting capacity. While fair hikes are making the news, privately the airlines offering sales left and right. Now, to be fair, sales are nothing new during the fall (traditionally the slow season for travel), but these sales are already being offered; traditionally, these kind of sales aren't offered until after Labor Day. Even Southwest, the airline with the best balance sheet and fuel hedging program in the industry felt the need to raise $600M earlier this year. My gut tells me that the entire US airline industry is looking at a cash squeeze, later this year. General rule: a company can operate without profits for a long time; a company cannot operate without adequate cash flow for very long. During the last, post-9/11 round of bankruptcies, the carriers that did go BK were able to obtain Debtor-In-Possession financing; however, we're also in the middle of a credit crunch so obtain DIP financing may be a lot more difficult.

If anyone out there is sitting on enough frequent flier miles for an award, or has any unused airline vouchers or gift cards, you may wish to cash them in sooner than later. As for purchasing tickets, you should only use a credit card, and booking no more than 30 days out would be best (traditionally, charges for airline tickets have longer dispute periods than other purchases, but given the current quality of customer service at banks, it's probably better to keep all purchases within the normal, 30 day dispute period). As for any bargain hunting for airline stocks, I wouldn't advise it; if one is insistent, invest no more than one would be willing to lose at a blackjack table, for what your engaged in is pure gambling.

If any readers outside the USA have any observations about the airline business in their part of the world, I would be most interested in reading the.

I think it's interesting when otherwise forgotten back-to-basics, self-reliance skills manifest themselves on more mainstream sites.  Seems to be happening more frequently, probably due to the economy, food scares, etc.

Curing bacon in NYC.  Here's the link. 

The optimist in me is starting to think more people are coming around to the idea of providing for themselves and relearning old skills like canning, etc.  But for now I guess it's small moves.  I know my garden is kind of cool & interesting among my friends.  But my grain mill (which I used this morning to make flour for pancakes) is still well beyond the pale.  Ha ha.

Article by UK columnist Mary Dejevsky from the UK Independent: "So We Can't Afford To Drive But Here's The Upside."

New York City also reports reduced traffic due to high fuel costs.

So, we win, right? Well, the comments below the first article contain one PO denier, and about 15-20 rational alternatives to the long rural commute. From the sound of things, the UK has been forced to adapt a little sooner than we have in the USA, though the adaptations also sound the same. I'm personally witnessing a lot of carpooling now that wasn't happening 4 months ago, and traffic IS less than before. Not a lot, but some. Eventually the San Jose Mercury News will publish some findings on that, if the Chronicle doesn't first. People are changing habits at a much lower price of gas than I'd calculated. Not everyone, but enough to get the ball rolling, socially. Is this enough? Probably not. Unless America can decide to operate on only 7 million barrels of oil per day, and never more than that, we're still going to suffer the consequences of Peak Oil. Can the UK cut back its use of oil to its Brent crude production? I don't think so. But good for them if they're really going to build passenger rail. They need it. Anything to keep them going to work and convinced the happy dreams of the 20th Century can go on forever.

I strongly disagree with the Kunstlerian view that the Suburbs MUST become slums. Streetcars to high speed rail hubs and heavy rail going through the industrial districts can convert various ground level office parks into small industrial workshops (and I've worked in several of those personally), providing jobs to the locals rather than drag them into the existing run-down urban industrial districts. If you need new machinery to make Stuff(tm), then you can put that machinery anywhere with a roof, a power supply, and rail access. Why try and drag all these workers into the city slums of today when you can convert existing industrial spaces to work with the population? Call this Counter-Kunstlerian Hybrid Theory, Reconversion and Connection(tm). Less upset for the population and their charming schools and treelined streets. The First World can't afford to upset the apple cart and piss off the Middle Class. There lies the route to civil war, and that's not good for anybody. Far better to recognize the potential and bring the jobs to them.

What about the urban poor and the rich? The rich displace the urban poor to the Exurbs and countryside, where they farm or die. The rich rebuild the urban neighborhoods in their own image of "charming" gentrification and make the cops push out the rest of the indigent poor. Cops win too since they get a boost to their wages, they don't get shot or stabbed anymore, and the work gets much easier and safer with a bunch of rich yahoos to ticket for speeding and parking. The urban industrial spaces will get decided by the marketplace. If they're worth more as condos, then the old buildings get ripped down and replaced. If they can be retasked to a critical industry, the market will make it happen. Nothing for a "centrally planned economy" socialist to get involved with. Real estate is built on profit, and that's a far more effective motivator.

As for the distant rural real estate errors... well, the world needs farm labor, doesn't it? McMansions can house a whole extended family or be converted into boarding houses with the simple addition of locks on the doors and a paid cook to manage the kitchen.

The formerly urban poor, those who survive the lack of drugs thanks to their lack of money to pay for it with, will have to do something or starve. And starving is certainly possible. I expect lots of home gardens will pop up. Lots of Neighborhood Watch and lynchings as well. If the Sheriff didn't feel the need to drive out and deal with the rash of burglaries, he can be left to deal with the "strange fruit" hanging on the old oak tree the next day. Company Towns are likely for various industries of scale that need many workers. Life could be good or very hard, depending on the industry. With globalism, hard is likely, but as the cost of shipping goes up a lot of counterintuitive consequences will result. How long before American Sneakers (shoes) are made in America because its cheaper than Vietnam or China? 10 years? 20? I wonder.

Its weird that what I describe above hasn't seem to have hit civic planners yet. It seems really obvious to me. And a hell of a lot cheaper than flipping the suburbs into slums, so close to the gentrified rich.

Cars are mostly made out of sheet metal, folded and cast steel, plastic, and laminated glass with rubber seals in various places. The structural steel needs to be there to transfer the power from the engine to the wheels to the road and hold up the cabin. There's also a great deal of dead weight in a car. Things like junk in the trunk and under the seats is a great place to start. The hood is typically heavy and can be replaced with a more expensive carbon fiber one. Doors may be heavy or light, depending on the thickness of the steel and the use of electric motors for the windows. Manual windows lack a "cool factor" but they work and they weigh very little. Additional motors and air conditioning units add unnecessary weight to a vehicle. Lighter glass, such as UV resistant polymer also goes some way to reducing the weight of a vehicle. The one downside of this is most car frames are designed to require a unibody design to be properly rigid and removing the outer steel panels will physically weaken it. Adding reinforcing struts may be required, though in some cases they must be fastened with bolts rather than welded since most light car frames are heat treated cro-moly steel and will sag under their own weight if welded, which is a bad thing.

So while it is possible to Redneck a car down to lightweight carbon fiber and strip out lots of environmental controls for weight savings the best option is to start with an ultralight cromoly frame designed for the task. While engineering a fabricating the frame, then heat treating it before going on to build up a car is understandably expensive and probably beyond the ability of a home hobbyist, that's not to say its impossible. Mass produced frames and scavenged parts could be sent to hobbyists to build up the more time consuming part, the panelling. They won't be perfect, of course. The carbon fiber cracks over time. Flexing of the frame will likely break panels from time to time. Kit cars are on the road around you. Most of the "Shelby Cobra" sports cars seen at shows are kits, not one of the original few thousand built by Shelby and his team. The big upside to hobbyists building up their cars from the frame is they'll be unique and identifiable parts of their personalities. Assuming they run narrow tires for reduced rolling resistance, lots of aluminum parts, and the Prius engine for the powerplant it should weigh around 900 lbs, basically a Sandrail with carbon fiber body and narrow. Of course, local shops assembling these would be faster and could sell them on order with a few weeks to deliver. I think the Prius has a longer delay. It would be nice if more engines like the Prius uses are built by domestic manufacturers using modern CNC. It would keep the Delphi parts factories working.

Additionally, a strange fact irritates me like a pebble in the shoe. Motorcycles today are often less complex or innovative than they were in 1979. They're just cheaper to make, cranking up profits for the manufacturer. This occurs to me that something should be done. If I were a automotive engineer I'd know that most car makers started by making mopeds, scooters, and motorcycles, then stepped up to small cars, light trucks, etc. BMW is a great example. So is Honda. They still make motorcycles, both of them, but the technology in their bikes is pretty weak. Now that we know Hayes Diesel Technology in SoCal was able to make a tiny diesel motorcycle engine that WORKS and gets 150 mpg of kerosene (JP8). Why did it take a war for this to come about? And why hasn't this design gotten licensed for domestic manufacture in civilian applications? One of those HDT engines plus either electric assist or in a slightly larger displacement would do wonders for ultralight cars. So long as the world lets Toyota control production of electric hybrid vehicles, they will "throttle" the release to maximize their profits. They're in need of competition. They need an AMD to their Intel, pushing them kicking and screaming into the future.

Considering the price of oil things are not as bad as I thought they'd be.

This LJ Community was formed to deal with the effects of peak oil, which we'd already agreed puts the world in serious trouble. We are meant to bring up potential consequences of Peak Oil, and discuss solutions or at least ways to make the change less painful. Those who have land for gardens are growing them. Those who can move out of cities are moving. Those who are moving into cities are moving. Examination of critical resources have gotten some of our readers to leave places like Las Vegas or Phoenix or Los Angeles. This is a good place for viable alternative energy, as well as discussing their potential and cost in the real world. It's also meant to be less strident than peak_oil or sarcastic than so_very_doomed.

So, what's the deal at this point in time?

First: oil has risen lots, and will continue to rise until demand destruction is once again balanced out. While this means that $4 is a happy memory for the price of gasoline, its not impossible that we could have $8/gal gasoline this year. A few weeks ago, $6.30/gal seemed the top for the year, but now, with oil rising more than $5/week, that looks like a price we'll see this Fall, nevermind the winter price. At $5/week, we'll see $230/bbl oil by New Years. Frightening, isn't it? Yes, BUT it is still affordable. Not cheap, but affordable. And the steady rise makes people think about it. They have TIME to think, which is the most important part.

Second: china hasn't stopped growing. Its easy to pretend that's frozen, that their demand for fuel hasn't risen but that hope is dead wrong. China is growing. The Car is a symbol of success in China. People are willing to pay a lot bigger chunk of their incomes for cars and fuel to show them off. We are competing with them for resources in the world, including oil, and their currency is rising while ours falls, meaning their currency buys more oil than ours does. Ironic, yes? India is much the same, with Making It being directly tied to owning a car. Those with the money want the car to go with it. Our currency in the USA (and EU too) will continue to fall in value, and China and India will continue to rise, so long as they can feed their populations.

Third: the superspike seems to have begun. With oil rising roughly $5/bbl per week, the unsteady rise has finally gained the notice of the commodities brokers and the general public. This thanks to a speech by T. Boone Pickens on CNBC on Tuesday has finally gotten the attention it deserves. Peak Oil is now in the Mainstream. I suppose we'll see articles in Time and Newsweek to explain it to the dumber members of society. The Wall Street Journal has covered it for months before the financial markets started paying attention.

Fourth: no riots. Violence seems too improbable in this slowest rise scenario that those hoarding beans and bullets seem comic. No reason not to have them, just in case, but its not a critical outlay. Pay off your debts instead. Invest in a used bicycle you can afford to have stolen.

Fifth: while the threat of superplague remains undaunted, it hasn't happened yet, so good for us. Good reason for beans, water filters, and OSHA certified face masks to keep out the germs. UV lights kill viruses too, btw. Having a tent setup in your home's entry for decontamination isn't a terrible idea, once this actually hits. Of course, the lights must stay on.

Sixth: reports on the state of the power grid indicate it needs serious and expensive work done to repair it, just to maintain current power demands. At some point the govt is going to need to get involved. The grid must be repaired and enabled with modern technology to deal with weak points so the whole thing doesn't drop just because of a few tree limbs. Charging vehicles should be done off-peak hours (overnight), with a discount for that delay.

Seventh: spot shortages, where for a week or two gasoline shipments are short or delayed or both. Lots of factors for this, but the big one is: there isn't enough oil getting to the refinery and not enough to meet demand. Spot shortages make life more challenging and we should expect many incidents of this in future. Eventually spot shortages won't be spot anymore and rationing will get imposed. Imposing it early will get people used to it, but the politician who does that will get blamed. Better, politically, to build up construction of more mass transit and fund commuter rail. Then the time comes, it will be ready.

Eighth: we still need to keep our jobs, pay our rent/mortgages, and buy food. We can still go to the movies and pickup our mail. The world is not coming to an end. Its just going to get more expensive to live and we're all, all of us, getting poorer in the deal. That's what energy depletion really means. Get used to driving the car with the door dings and bad paint. Its more sensible than buying a new one when gasoline is only a couple years from rationing. Get used to rationing, and a 50 MPH max speed limit. You can see more of the countryside as you drive past it. Enjoy your slower commute, and talk to your carpool friends.

Tags: oil

Motorscooters get 90 mpg, but they do it with a 49cc engine and by weighing a couple hundred pounds. They have a 1-2 hp engine and they're 2-cycle, no valves. A very basic and cheap design, which is why they're used around the world. BREEET!

Not suitable for everyone, and our society hasn't transitioned to the 3rd world, and won't go quietly. To gentle the change it would be a good idea to offer some high fuel economy options to those who can pay for them, and make it as cheap as possible so they CAN pay for them. If the govt does its part and allows experimental 4-wheeled vehicles on the road without being difficult, so they can become daily commuters, it would go a long way to saving our economy from total disruption/destruction.

The best option of those is the general design using a small efficient engine, like maybe a Prius engine without all the electrical boost battery parts running an 800-900 lb. ultralight car, 4 wheel independent suspension, steel frame, lightweight windows, carbon fiber everything else. Its something the Big 3 could build, if they had no choice. A car that light would be zippy with a 1L engine, and acceptable with a 600cc engine provided its designed for a top speed of around 50 mph with a low drag body. Gearing matters, naturally. A CVT would help with weight and power, and at that curb-weight, it would work well. The big problem with this is it may be a while before it gets built, what with the STUNNING level of competence we've seen from the leadership in Detroit. I have little doubt that the engineers in the trenches have their own car designs waiting for when they get laid off. It's what I'd do if I was stuck designing stupid SUVs, after all. I've read that these designs vary from 70 mpg to something like 150 mpg, mostly due to weight and drag. The higher MPG were undrivable in the real world, so 70 mpg would be a good direction. The Govt needs to get out of the way, while making SUV's very expensive to register and own, and impossible to fuel via rationing. It won't make the owners of their new "guest bedroom" happy, but its the real world here. $4.18/gal is the outcome of today's oil price rises alone.

I got interested in survivalism when I was around 11 years old. To learn wilderness skills I joined the Boy Scouts, and got to make all the classic mistakes that adults make too, only in scouting you get another chance and it won't kill you and your family during the process. This is important.

Most survivalists are people who are fed up with civilization and grab a bunch of stuff that they consider essential and run off to the woods and try and pioneer it,( How Survivalism fares against the reality of rural poverty )

And I don't despise them for trying. America (and other countries) need the rural poor, especially those who believe in good values, as our cultural equivalent of a deep larder. But I understand, deeply, that Survivalism is a lifestyle for martyrs and saints in the best of times. Most people will just die painfully if they try.

 Given the continuous climb in the price of oil, and if it continues indefinitely, how long does one have to prepare before the masses catch on and it is too little too late.