babynutcase ([info]babynutcase) wrote in [info]peak_oil,
@ 2006-04-04 08:08:00
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Good Old 200-Day Moving Average Keeps On Tracking
The red/black line is the price of oil daily. The blue line is the daily average of the last 200 days.

(click me!)

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[info]beachofdreams
2006-04-04 06:43 am UTC (link)
It certainly seems like price volitility is increasing, and probably because supply and demand are becoming neck and neck, or we have passed the peak. One way a peak would be visible, price wise, is if volalitity starts to become very pronouced. After all, a supply shortage would drive prices high enough to reduce demand a little, makng the price go down until demand rises again due to the lower prices. But then again, this assumes peak; pre-peak could look like this - all it takes is a relatively general unwillingness to pay the prices at the time.

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[info]babynutcase
2006-04-04 06:58 am UTC (link)
It certainly seems like price volitility is increasing

But the 200-day moving averages shows that the "volitility" is all in one direction when you average out slight changes.

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[info]tnrkitect
2006-04-04 08:25 am UTC (link)
Iraq's oil exports have not been at their potential since before the first gulf war. The disruption of output has caused a minor increase in the price of oil ever since then. The disruption due to political and military unrest has momentary increases, hence the increased volatility. Yet the average uncovers the movement of the market, which is trending upwards regardless of the spikes in prices due to sporadic unrest and military action.

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[info]tnrkitect
2006-04-05 06:05 am UTC (link)
I went to a seminar at the geo-sciences department at my University yesterday. The speaker is the president and chief scientific officer of the Mississippi Oil Company, and has over 30 years in the industry.

He never called it "peak oil" once funnily enough, but two key elements jumped out at me from his presentation.

1 - Demand is equal to Supply for the first time in history, and will shortly exceed supply in the near future.

2 - He expects to see $100 / barrel oil and $5.00 / gallon gas within 2 years.

Sounds like peak oil to me. *shrug*

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[info]babynutcase
2006-04-04 09:51 am UTC (link)
mostly due to the war in Iraq and decrease in Iraq's oil exports?

Then I guess you haven't been paying attention to Nigeria.

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[info]beachofdreams
2006-04-04 08:53 am UTC (link)
It's true that the general trend is upwards; however the "way up" is becoming a lot more volatile.

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[info]bigrock
2006-04-04 07:56 am UTC (link)
I think we still have a ways to go. We had the dot com bubble, then the housing bubble... perhaps the next bubble will be the oil bubble.

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[info]babynutcase
2006-04-04 09:57 am UTC (link)
Well the dot com bubble popped for a reason: bad investments in Internet technology (eg. a pet portal when it's easier to by dog food from a store.)

The housing bubble is getting shakey for a reason: overpriced houses and loss of high-income buyers.

What will pop the oil bubble? Do you think China will decide it didn't want an industrial revolution after all?

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[info]beachofdreams
2006-04-04 11:10 am UTC (link)
Indeed, the entire economy as it stands IS an oil bubble.

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[info]bigrock
2006-04-04 08:38 pm UTC (link)
Technology enabling us to use other products instead of oil/gas for transportation and goods.

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[info]babynutcase
2006-04-05 03:52 am UTC (link)
Are you using those technologies? We we don't start funding them now will they be around when things go wrong?

Is your electricity coming from wind or solar? Mine will be starting May 10.

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[info]bigrock
2006-04-05 04:17 am UTC (link)
I drive a diesel car and I use Biodiesel when I am happen to be near the only Biodiesel station in the Boston area. If Biodiesel were more readily available I would fill up even more instead of regular diesel.

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[info]happypickle
2006-04-04 08:52 am UTC (link)
I'm noticing that - for now - it's squeezed between the moving average and $70. So for a short while it's been less volatile.

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[info]pfy
2006-04-04 11:35 am UTC (link)
I have seen analysts claiming that this means the oil price has reached a peak, and that it should soon drop back below $60 for a good long time.

This seems to me to be ignoring economic factors such as, um, supply and demand. I don't see how oil is going to fall back below $60 at all without a recession.

I shall feel vindicated if the current upturn leads to a new high above $71.

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[info]happypickle
2006-04-04 11:50 am UTC (link)
I'm thinking it's just heavy resistance at $70 more than anything else. Now if it goes down long enough to drag down the moving average, *then* it might be a peak. But I think it'll be much more likely that we'll see $80 than ever seeing $59.99 (or less) again.

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[info]pfy
2006-04-04 12:10 pm UTC (link)
Yeah, if oil goes above $70, people would have to say, "Uh oh... we're just coming up to this year's hurricane season, and the price is already where it was just after all our rigs got smashed flat last year".

I've been way wrong before, but $80 by the end of the summer doesn't strike me as at all unlikely.

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[info]babynutcase
2006-04-04 11:56 am UTC (link)
I have seen analysts claiming that this means the oil price has reached a peak, and that it should soon drop back below $60 for a good long time.

When's the last time you saw a "drop down to $30" analysis? When do you expect to first hear about the "drop down to $70"?

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[info]pfy
2006-04-04 01:00 pm UTC (link)
When's the last time you saw a "drop down to $30" analysis?

Ahh, nostalgia.

When do you expect to first hear about the "drop down to $70"?

Oh, who knows? Probably from the moment it goes above $70 until the idea of $70 oil is too ludicrous for even the most hardened peak oil sceptic to believe (or until a recession really does drag the price back below $70).

Being an oil analyst must be a great job. I think I'd just write a computer program to keep generating the same half a dozen reports with slightly higher prices each time, and spend the rest of my career playing Minesweeper.

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