babynutcase ([info]babynutcase) wrote in [info]peak_oil,
@ 2005-11-10 13:47:00
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The Bumpy Plateau
Well I've got to hand it to the corporate powers that be for having restored gasoline to the level of pre-Katrina-Rita-Wilma levels or nearly so via a massive blast of imports and some refinery repairs and temporary demand destruction.
Add Together: ImportsPlus: Refinery OutputMinus: DemandEquals: Stockpiles


Unfortunately for diesel and heating oil, demand is not cooperating so well, but imports are going up after a somewhat later start than gasoline imports.
Add Together: ImportsPlus: Refinery OutputMinus: DemandEquals: Stockpiles

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Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]00solstice
2005-11-10 12:21 pm UTC (link)
Consider this:

The shortage known Peak Oil (is/will be) a world phenomenon, right? But only if we look at recent events on a national level was there a shortage after the hurricanes.

Sure, imports from foreign stockpiles certainly helped us out... but, at the same time, those countries needed to replenish those stockpiles, if they are strategic in nature. If those stockpiles were not strategic in nature, then they were surplus product not necessary for their markets.

So, in either case, the shortage and subsequent redistribution of finished product reflects not a reduction in the amount of oil left to refine, but the balance of refineries across the globe. Or, perhaps more accurately, the imbalance.

Don't get me wrong, I still think the concept of Peak Oil still represents a looming problem. And I do think that auto manufacturers have plenty of room for improvement for more efficient engines and designs. And I do think America (along with much of the world) needs to relearn the important lessons of energy conservation that we seem have forgotten since the Seventies.

But, if an influx of finished product reduced the duration of the 'crisis' we saw in early September, perhaps we need to rethink our national energy policy and more aggressively examine and improve the way we bring finished product to the consumers.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]babynutcase
2005-11-10 01:49 pm UTC (link)
I wrote "pre-Katrina-Rita-Wilma levels" because things were wrong back then. I avoided writing "correct levels" or anything like it.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]00solstice
2005-11-10 04:38 pm UTC (link)
Right. I agree, $58/barrel is still about $20 more than I would prefer to see.

So are we to believe the import of refined product lowered the price of crude product? And, if so, does that mean we should re-examine how we bring that refined product to market?

Or could the drop in price be a reflection of less anxiety among oil futures speculators?

The Northern Hemisphere summer "driving season" is over, and winter has not yet really started, so it's natural that crude prices come down among those considerations as well.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]babynutcase
2005-11-11 02:08 pm UTC (link)
[Aaron Dunlap] was speaking to Adam Porter last night, and [Adam] was relating how the real effects of $40 oil were finally reaching the rest of the economy right now because of the long lead times in global economies.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]babynutcase
2005-11-11 02:22 pm UTC (link)
So are we to believe the import of refined product lowered the price of crude product?
You are ignoring the fact that stockpiles of refined product exist and the imports are drawing on them.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]00solstice
2005-11-11 03:09 pm UTC (link)
No... I'm asking why they existed. Do they exist because they're markets create a surplus over there? Or do they exist for a strategic purpose (like ours, supposedly).

If it's the latter (market surplus), perhaps we need to reconsider the distribution of crude product to better meet the needs of demand for refined product. Or, look at making imports of refined product from markets that don't need them a more regular occurance.

If it's the former (strategic reserves), then at some point -- sooner, rather than later -- they'll be looking at replenishing those (if they're not doing so already). As such, I'm impressed that oil prices have continued to drop even though consumption is on par with what it was last November and the consumption associated IEA reserves replenishment.

So, whether it's the former or the latter, it seems the hurricanes have highlight a shortage of refining capacity more than it demonstrates a shortage of oil.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]00solstice
2005-11-11 03:14 pm UTC (link)
You said: You are ignoring the fact that stockpiles of refined product exist

I said: imports from foreign stockpiles certainly helped us out

If there is "ignoring" going on in this discussion, it's clearly not on my part.

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Re: Oil is trading at $58/barrel today
[info]babynutcase
2005-11-11 02:32 pm UTC (link)
"The situation has completely changed since the beginning of October," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo.

Oil prices have declined 14 percent since reaching $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30, after Hurricane Katrina made landfall.

Emori attributed the U.S. petroleum inventory increases to the release of 60 million barrels of oil equivalent by the International Energy Agency after Katrina devastated Gulf of Mexico oil facilities.

"The release of crude and gas stocks from the IEA provided a good cover against the shortage expected after the hurricanes," Emori said, adding the move has now shown to have helped keep overheated oil prices in check.

The 26-nation IEA comprising mainly industrialized oil-importing countries agreed Thursday to complete the release of emergency oil stocks launched to plug supply shortages after Katrina, but decided against any further measures.

The governing board of the IEA reviewed the global oil supply situation and the stock draw announced last month, and said it remains prepared to take "additional coordinated action" to address future shortages if needed.

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the corporate powers that be... or the IEA
(Anonymous)
2005-12-23 06:42 am UTC (link)
http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=156

The EU has been giving us 2 million barrels per day of oil and refined products since September 2nd. While the original offer was supposed to have only been good for 30 days, I believe the shipments are still coming. I could be wrong...

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