Our man in Eurovisionia ([info]nick_at_esc) wrote in [info]oneurope_live,
@ 2008-05-25 00:27:00
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OK, so I got that one wrong...
It's not like it's not been staring us in the face for weeks now, but I was still a little surprised by that result. It's a winner that I don't feel I'll ever be able to love, but I don't expect to like everything! Actually, I've been overdue for a winner that I didn't like, I've not really had a major problem with any winner since Eimear Quinn in 1996.

All the same, no denying that the Russians really wanted it and put everything into getting the win. People are now poring over the full results of everything and wondering what to make of it all. The thing that's leapt out is that FYR Macedonia came 10th in the televote in SF2... and the jury saved Sweden. And that Russia was third behind Greece and Armenia in Semi 1. And that 14 points for last place is a new ESC record. And lots of other things.

I'm going to sleep on it myself rather than type in haste, as I've got to hop into a taxi at 8:00 tomorrow morning to go to the airport. As indeed have the rest of the team!

I'm not cross though. I don't like the Eurovision winner, and tomorrow morning the sun still rises! :-)

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 04:49 am UTC (link)
Can we FINALLY put to rest the ridiculous notion that the second semi-final had stronger songs than the first?

Semi-final one: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 20, 22, 24
Semi-final two: 2, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21

The first semi-final contained four of the top five finishers and seven of the top ten (I always saw it as MUCH stronger).

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the semi finals
(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 07:37 am UTC (link)
You haven't understood the claim about why the second semi was stronger.

Therer were a handful of entries in semi 1 that were a foregone conclusion whereas semi 2 was much more wide open. That's why people were getting 9 right on Tuesday and six right on Thursday.

Then the draw in the press conference finished off any chance the second semi songs by giving them all relatively weak positions. The later you sing, the better your prospects. Its transparent again and is much more of a problem than any neighbourly voting.

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Re: the semi finals
(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 09:11 am UTC (link)
I kept reading that it had better songs (all of the "fan boy" songs that the public didn't think as much of - Bulgaria, Iceland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland).

The draw did help some songs in the first semi-final some, BUT Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and (especially) Israel all made the top ten (and Israel was NOT a "foregone conclusion" song) from the first third of the draw - much worse positions than Denmark, Georgia, Iceland, Portugal, or Sweden. Heck, Bosnia and Herzegovina finished ninth in the first semi-final, and (from a horrible draw) beat all of the songs in the second semi-final except for Ukraine and Turkey.

If by calling the second semi-final "more wide open," you mean that it had worse songs, then yes, I agree with you.

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Re: the semi finals
(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 10:19 am UTC (link)
Give me a break (complaining about the draw). Six of the ten songs from the first semi-final had draws in the first ten spots in the final. Only two of the songs from the second semi-final ended up in the first ten positions (and only one in the first eight slots). Songs from the second semi-final actually had on average, a slightly later draw than songs from the first one (so they should have done better overall, right?).

Sure, the last position no doubt helped Norway (a lot), but who knows what Israel (who finished ninth performing after a break, no less) or Bosnia and Herzegovina could have done there? Armenia might even have won the contest performing after Russia (Armenia beat Russia in the semi-final, and that was with an absolutely horrible vocal performance).

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Re: the semi finals
(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 11:47 pm UTC (link)
I enjoy beating dead horses, so one last comment in this (I don't promise that, though :) ).

Looking at a head to head comparison:

RO beat 00/00 earlier songs from 2SF, 01/10 later songs from 2SF
AM beat 01/01 earlier songs from 2SF, 08/09 later songs from 2SF
BA beat 01/01 earlier songs from 2SF, 07/09 later songs from 2SF
IL beat 01/01 earlier songs from 2SF, 07/09 later songs from 2SF
FI beat 00/01 earlier songs from 2SF, 00/09 later songs from 2SF
PL beat 00/02 earlier songs from 2SF, 00/08 later songs from 2SF
AZ beat 08/10 earlier songs from 2SF, 00/00 later songs from 2SF
GR beat 09/10 earlier songs from 2SF, 00/00 later songs from 2SF
RU beat 10/10 earlier songs from 2SF, 00/00 later songs from 2SF
NO beat 09/10 earlier songs from 2SF, 00/00 later songs from 2SF
Totals: 39/46 earlier songs from 2SF, 23/54 later songs from 2SF

AL beat 01/01 earlier songs from 1SF, 02/09 later songs from 1SF
HR beat 01/05 earlier songs from 1SF, 01/05 later songs from 1SF
IS beat 03/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 00/04 later songs from 1SF
TK beat 05/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 01/04 later songs from 1SF
PT beat 03/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 00/04 later songs from 1SF
LV beat 03/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 00/04 later songs from 1SF
SE beat 03/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 00/04 later songs from 1SF
DK beat 03/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 00/04 later songs from 1SF
GE beat 03/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 00/04 later songs from 1SF
UA beat 06/06 earlier songs from 1SF, 03/04 later songs from 1SF
Totals: 31/54 earlier songs from 1SF, 07/46 later songs from 1SF

(Reply to this) (Parent)
the semi finals
(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 10:59 am UTC (link)
Why, the second semi final clearly HAD the better songs (i.e. Sweden, Iceland, Portugal, Finland, Ukraine, Malta). So what they didn't score as they'd deserve (including Ukraine, which should have won)? The majority of the televoters clearly don't have the slightest clue when it comes to a good song. That's nothing new and was already proven back in 2001 and 2002, when out of a very strong field (Antique, Nusa Derenda...) the worst pieces of shite ever won.

Oliver (aufrechtgehn.de)

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Re: the semi finals
(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 06:59 am UTC (link)
Glad you put Finland in there, but Finland actually came from the first semi-final.

Sweden and Iceland were always overrated. The western televoters, that put Sweden fifth last year, put them thirteenth this year.

I never liked the Portugese song (great performer, though). Western televoters did put them tenth, but they got only seven points from the twenty-five eastern televoting countries. I will even admit that the draw hurt them more than most countries (they definitely would have finished in the top ten performing last), but this was never as close to winning as many people thought.

I liked Malta and wanted to see them qualify, but they never had any top ten potential. I would still stack up most of the qualifiers from the first semi-final against Malta- Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Norway. Norway was the only song from western Europe in the top twelve overall, and only two western songs in the past five contests (including this one) have placed better - Lordi and Chiara.

Actually, I wouldn't have minded if Malta could have somehow replaced Finland. :) :) :) Finland certainly didn't justify its hype in the final.

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[info]nick_at_esc
2008-05-25 05:50 pm UTC (link)
That accounts for 7 out of 19. It all goes horribly, HORRIBLY wrong after that. I don't think it's a coincidence that three of the four worst-performing qualifiers also came out of Semi 1.

I'd make a small wager, in the "this is impossible to prove either way" stylee, that any of the Top 15 songs in Semi 2 would have qualified if they'd been drawn in Semi 1. The fact that Hungary came stone last makes me idly wonder if ANY of the songs in Semi 2 would have failed to qualify from Semi 1...

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 06:39 am UTC (link)
Qualifying and finishing out of the top ten doesn't impress me very much (I actually wish they would reduce the size of the field - maybe just eight qualifiers from each semi-final and last year's winner). A seven to two advantage in the top ten (and I said it would be least six to three even before the first semi-final) makes a pretty loud statement, especially with three of those seven coming from the toughest part of the draw.

As for your wager, I will grant that some of the non-qualifying countries in the second semi-final could have beaten Poland (which finished tenth in the first semi-final), but it took 72 points in the first semi-final to finish ninth. Only seven countries in the second semi-final beat that score (with one more voting country even, AND with the so called "foregone conclusion" songs sucking up more of the available points in the first semi-final).

But surely you don't think ("if ANY of the songs in Semi 2 would have failed to qualify") that Czech Republic, Belarus, or Lithuania would have qualified in semi-final one, do you? I have doubts about Cyprus and Malta (they had good draws in the second semi-final - maybe they would get by Poland with a good draw in the first, thus depending on the jury, but they certainly weren't beating any of the other nine qualifiers). The Swiss singer couldn't sing live, and that has killed many a song over the years.

Maybe the second semi-final had one or two more decent songs that missed qualifying (but the first semi-final had Netherlands, equal to several of the qualifiers from both semi-finals in my opinion).

I guess we will just continue to disagree about this, but the scoreboard provides at least some objective evidence supporting my point of view that the first semi-final had more of the top songs.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 04:52 am UTC (link)
Some random thoughts:

Don't dismiss the odds. The top three favorites finished (in order) one, two, and three.

Most of the sudden movement in the odds didn't mean anything, but I did wonder about the integrity of keeping the semi-final results confidential. Some people do know them, of course, and that knowledge would allow anyone knowing them a significant wagering advantage.

I correctly predicted seven out of the top ten. All of my top six predictions finished in the top ten. Number seven Sweden finished eighteenth (lower than I imagined), number nine Spain finished sixteenth (I should have paid more attention to the rehearsal reports), and number ten Portugal finished thirteenth (I knew they wouldn't come close to winning, but the press had me convinced they would make the top ten. I missed Norway (I had them fourteenth - I really liked this song, but didn't think it would get votes from the east), Israel (I had them eleventh, just two places below where they finished), and Azerbaijan (I had them seventeenth - I still don't get the appeal of this song).

No one came close to Verka Serduchka's record of getting points from all forty televoting countries last year (plus one of the two jury countries).


Final comments:

The U.K. did not deserve to finish tied for last this year.

Armenia (eight) picked up more twelve points than Russia (seven).

I never bought the hype for Portugal (and I feel embarrassed even putting them tenth now). She can sing great, but (ask Andy Abraham) some songs just can't be pushed to the top by anyone.

Ukraine looked MUCH better in the final. If she had given that performance in the semi-final, I would have moved her up a couple of notches (to second). I thought Ukraine would win after they had performed.

How on earth did France score the same number of points as Sweden? I never watched a French rehearsal, but if I had, I would have put it last (even behind Germany). It sounded terrible.

Greece (my pick to win) was never going to win, but she sounded off at the start of the song, which probably cost them second place.

Spain did not look good on a big stage (I wish I had watched that rehearsal, too). They might have done better with just the same two women they had in the video.

I still don't "Believe" in Russia's song. This is the worst of the three (counting the 2005 National Final) Eurovision songs Dima has had. Russia will no doubt put on a first rate show (and spend whatever it takes to do so), but I would rather go just about anywhere else than Moscow (I have been there a half-dozen times before, and Moscow has a lot of negatives for visitors).


Second semi-final comments:

Get rid of the jury pick. Macedonia deserved to qualify more than Sweden did (it scored more points). Macedonia finished tenth (and Bulgaria eleventh) in the televote, with Sweden twelfth.

How did Croatia finish fourth and Turkey seventh in the semi-final? They finished right where I expected them to in the final (I predicted Turkey sixth and Croatia twenty-third - they finished seventh and twenty-first respectively).

The biggest oops - many people (including myself) had Hungary as a qualifier. They finished dead last with six points.


First semi-final comments:

Neither Estonia (which finished eighteenth) nor Ireland (which finished fifteenth) came close to qualifying.

The one I missed - I picked Slovenia to qualify (which finished eleventh), instead of Finland (which finished eighth).

First semi-final - Finland eighth, Bosnia and Herzegovina ninth. Final - Bosnia and Herzegovina tenth, Finland twenty-second.

The Netherlands truly has no friends, finishing forty-five points behind ninth place. I think if it had made the final, it would have beat most of the songs from the second semi-final there.

Russia finished only third in the semi-final (behind Greece, which won, and Armenia). That reminded me of 2004, the other time one country (Ukraine) lost to another (Serbia and Montenegro) in a semi-final, then went on to win the whole thing.

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[info]cj136uk
2008-05-25 06:56 am UTC (link)
I'm sorry but the UK id deserve last place until it picks it's act up.
At least these eastern european countries send credible singers, with fantastic songs. The UK doesn't bother so look at the result. Terry Wogan and Kevin Bishop both eluded to the UK withdrawal. Shall I suggest then that the UK automatically (along with the big four) receive a starting point of 75 points just for being themselves!!!! Absolutely not, although Wogan kept moaning the fact the big 4 kept getting low marks, well these were deserved, all 14 of them, when you send a dogs dinner you get the dogs dinner back...
J

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 08:59 am UTC (link)
The U.K. was clearly better than Germany (and I think France, too).

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-25 09:29 am UTC (link)
If it is any consolation, Dima Bilan had the second lowest winning score ever under the 12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system (6.48 points per country). Only Greece in 2005 (6.05) won with a lower score.

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There's a god somewhere....
[info]nutley1
2008-05-25 07:14 pm UTC (link)
As one of the 7 unique users of the blog over the past week I felt I had to post something, and tbh it's that I agree with the above and it was that fact that kept me smiling - for me it was bad enough Russia won (I was rooting for Shady Lady and Secret Combination), I would have been all the more devestated had it been with an all-time high score!!

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[info]brigbother
2008-05-25 09:31 am UTC (link)
I'm not cross though. I don't like the Eurovision winner, and tomorrow morning the sun still rises! :-)

Dude, you have so missed the point of being a Eurovision fan.

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[info]nick_at_esc
2008-05-25 05:54 pm UTC (link)
I've tried really hard to lose my sense of perspective, but it keeps coming up behind me and kicking me in the butt whenever I do :-)

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 07:02 am UTC (link)
Just like last year, I have divided the countries into "western" and "eastern." I use only geography for the classification, but (conveniently), the countries that most people complain about getting put in the east (Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Turkey) fit well there because they VOTE like other eastern European countries, even if they have more in common (in general) with the west.

I have (again) excluded Andorra and Albania, and this year San Marino, because I believe they used back-up juries to award their points. If anyone knows otherwise, please let me know, and I will update the numbers.

The fifteen western televoting countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

The twenty-five eastern televoting countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey, and Ukraine.

First, let's take a look at how each area voted (ordered by the average number of points received from other countries).

West
NO 5.36 01
TK 4.27 02
IS 4.14 03
GR 3.93 04
UA 3.73 05
AM 3.67 06
LV 3.47 07
BA 3.40 08=
RU 3.40 08=
PT 3.36 10
RS 3.33 11
DK 3.00 12
SE 2.57 13
IL 1.93 14
ES 1.86 15
FR 1.57 16
RO 1.57 17
FI 1.29 18
PL 0.93 19
AZ 0.67 20
UK 0.57 21
AL 0.53 22=
HR 0.53 22=
GE 0.40 24
DE 0.14 25

East
RU 8.75 01
UA 6.67 02
AM 5.58 03
GR 5.29 04
AZ 4.79 05
RS 4.38 06
NO 3.68 07
IL 3.38 08
GE 3.21 09
TK 2.50 10
BA 2.46 11
AL 1.76 12
HR 1.50 13
LV 1.21 14
FR 0.880 15
RO 0.875 16
DK 0.64 17=
ES 0.64 17=
FI 0.52 19
DE 0.48 20
SE 0.32 21
PT 0.28 22
IS 0.24 23
UK 0.00 24=
PL 0.00 24=

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 07:04 am UTC (link)
(continued)

Well, some things certainly stand out from these numbers.

First of all, just having the western countries vote would have led to a very exciting contest with less than fifteen points between second and eleventh (second place Turkey had sixty-four points in total and eleventh place Serbia had fifty).

Norway won the western televote, and still finished a respectable seventh in the east. The second highest scoring song from western Europe in the east was France (fifteenth).

Turkey finished second in the west (like last year, but they averaged 6.94 in the west last year), but only tenth in the east.

Iceland finished third in the western televote, but only twenty-third in the east.

Ukraine finished only fifth in the west (third last year behind Serbia and Turkey), but a very strong second in the east.

Armenia finished sixth in the west but third in the east (scoring a higher average in the east than any country did in the west).

Latvia finished seventh in the west and fourteenth in the east (with twenty-two of Latvia's fifty-two points in the west coming from Ireland and United Kingdom).

Bosnia and Herzegovina finished better in the west (8th/9th) than in the east (eleventh).

Russia won the eastern televote averaging a massive 8.75 points per country. The west had Russia 8th/9th (eighth last year) with an average of 3.40 points (3.13 last year). I (incorrectly) thought Russia would need more points from the west to win, but the east gave them 210 points with Ukraine second at 160, and Armenia third at 134. Try making up a difference like that with only fifteen countries. Russia's overall score (6.48) was the second lowest winning score ever (only Greece in 2005 won with a lower score - an amazingly low 6.05).

Portugal finished in the top ten among western televoters. They picked up only seven points in the east, finishing twenty-second.

Last year, Sweden finished fifth in the west, and got shut out in the east. This year, the gap is closer (thirteenth west, twenty-first east), but they finished eighteenth overall again.

Israel picked up some points where I didn't expect them to, actually scoring better in the east (ninth) than the west (fourteenth).

Spain didn't gain much from the west (fifteenth versus 17th/18th in the east).

Finland finished eighteenth in the west and nineteenth in the east, which combined to put them in twenty-second overall (so much for the effect of the metal fans).

Azerbaijan finished twentieth in the west, and all the way up in fifth place in the east, with the second greatest point difference after Russia.

Albania and Croatia finished tied for 22nd/23rd in the west (with a total of eight points). They obviously did better in the east, but hardly enough to complain about (Albania twelfth and Croatia thirteenth).

On the other hand, Georgia finished twenty-fourth (second last) in the west, but their ninth place finish among easter voters left them just shy of the top ten overall.

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(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 07:05 am UTC (link)
(continued)

Finally, we can run a few statistical tests on the score differences. The first column contains the result when subtracting average western points from average eastern points, and the second column contains the probability (as a percentage) that this difference occured by chance (as opposed to people voting different in the east as opposed to the west). The lower the number the more likely that people in the east did not vote the same way as people in the west for that song (more correctly, that the scores for that country from the east did not come from the same distribution as the scores for that country from the west).

RU +5.35 0.002%
AZ +4.13 0.02%
UA +2.93 2.00%
GE +2.81 0.06%
IL +1.44 9.68%
SE -2.25 5.18%
LV -2.26 7.27%
DK -2.36 6.52%
PT -3.08 0.93%
IS -3.90 0.35%

Obviously one or two years does not make a trend, but at the moment, I see the possibility of seven "semi-permanent" members of the top ten (meaning that they will finish in the top ten even with a mediocre song, though not with a very weak one) - Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Let's look at the positions these countries have finished in the past three years (two years for Serbia):

08 07 06
04 08 08 Armenia
10 11 03 Bosnia and Herzegovina
03 07 09 Greece
01 03 02 Russia
06 01 NA Serbia
07 04 11 Turkey
02 02 07 Ukraine

A couple of eleventh place finishes, but everything else in the top ten. I predicted all of these would again finish in the top ten this year, and while I got all of those right, I had no luck at all guessing the other three top ten finishers (Norway, Azerbaijan, and Israel this year).

Yes, these countries have sent some good songs recently. But you can't convince me that United Kingdom would have finished seventh if it (instead of Greece) had sent Sarbel with Yassou Maria in 2007, for example.

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It´s easy to win
(Anonymous)
2008-05-26 12:46 pm UTC (link)
To win Eurovision song contest, all one has to do is to follow Russia´s example: that is, to distribute a huge amount of SIM cards to Russian citizens living in neighboring countries so they could vote cost free. Ireland, pay attention! Oh, of course it´s not about singing (well) at all, otherwise how could Sirusho be awarded so many points? It´s all about... well, make your own conclusions, ladies an gentlemen.

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