It didn't stop with Speed Racer... Aslan also underperforms

NARNIA SHOCKER: 'Prince Caspian' underwhelms w/$18M Fri & disappointing $51.3M opening!; 'Iron Man' w/$9.25M Fri & targets $33M, making $300M possible!; 'Happens in Vegas’ solid w/$4.65M 2nd Fri; 'Reprise' likely PTA winner!
by Steve Mason|

FRIDAY 10PM: Walden Media’s The Narnia Chronicles: Prince Caspian (Disney) has failed to match the $23M opening day of 2005’s The Lion, The Witch & the Wardrobe, managing only $18M on Friday. The second of what could be 7 films based on the C.S. Lewis Christian-themed Narnia novels will likely finish the weekend with an estimated $51.3M. If the number holds, that will be 22% less than the first Narnia installment.

Theatre owners and most of the so-called box office “experts” were looking for an $80M+ opening weekend, and I called for $74M-$77M, so Prince Caspian is a distinct disappointment. Industry tracking pointed toward a stronger opening, and execs from competing studios have theories about why the new Narnia has opened soft. Despite generally positive reviews (69% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), many critics mentioned that the movie is darker than the first with some extended battle sequences, which could be a contributing factor. Also, one source tells me that the faith-based marketing effort was less effective this time around.

Reclusive Christian billionaire Phillip Anschutz is the money and driving force behind the Narnia films. Anschutz worth at least $5 billion, began as an oilman before moving on to railroads and telecommunications. He has invested heavily in sports and entertainment for the last decade. His Anschutz Entertainment Group now owns more sports teams and events than any company in the world, and AEG also owns stadiums and arenas like Staples Center in Los Angeles, the Nokia Theatre in Times Square and the O2 in London. The maverick also bought up troubled movie theater chains United Artists, Edwards Theaters and Regal Cinemas, and he now controls more movie screens than any other company. Before jumping into filmmaking 6 years ago, he told an associate that he wanted to be "doing something significant in American Christianity."

The next chapter of The Chronicles of Narnia, titled Voyage of the Dawn Treader, is already in production with director Michael Apted at the helm. Narnia 3 is set for release May 7, 2010, and if Walden Media follows with another sequel every 2 years, the franchise-ender, The Last Battle, would hit theatres in 2018. Prince Caspian’s weaker-than-expected opening puts this "master plan" in question.

Almost as surprising as Narnia’s slow start is the spectacular 3rd weekend performance of Iron Man (Paramount). Marvel’s first self-produced, self-financed feature seized another $9.25M Friday as the movie soared past $200M. That will likely translate to a phenomenal $33M for the 3-day, representing just a 35% drop from last weekend. Iron Man is now a solid bet to reach $300M domestic.

The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy What Happens in Vegas (Fox) added an estimated $4.65M Friday, and it will be a solid #3 for the weekend with $13.75M or so. That is an excellent performance, down just 32% from its opening weekend, for a new cume of $40.2M.

Speed Racer (Warner Bros) slowed to $2.4M on its 2nd Friday, and it will manage only an estimated $8.1M, down 57% from last weekend. The Wachowskis anime-inspired epic will have banked only $30.2M domestic by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Sony’s Made of Honor is #5 with $1.65M Friday and a likely $5.3M for the 3-day. The Patrick Dempsey vehicle will be just shy of $35M domestic by the end of the weekend.

Joachim Trier’s Reprise (Miramax) will probably be the top Per Theatre performer of the weekend. The Norwegian arthouse offering, already a winner of 3 Amanda Awards including Best Picture, should finish the weekend with a $13,300 PTA on 3 screens, holding off Prince Caspian, which will likely average $13,000 at each of its 3,929 locations.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Reprise (Miramax) – 3 locations - $13,333 PTA
2. NEW – Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) – 3,929 locations - $13,057 PTA
3. Iron Man (Paramount) – 4,154 locations - $7,944 PTA
4. America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) – 1 location - $7,500 PTA
5. NEW – Sangre de Mi Sangre (IFC Films) – 1 location - $6,250 PTA
6. Bloodline (Cinema Libre) – 3 locations - $4,667 PTA
7. The Fall (Roadside Attractions) – 11 locations - $4,545 PTA
8. Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) – 17 locations - $4,412 PTA
9. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) – 3,255 locations - $4,224 PTA
10. NEW – Yella (Cinema Guild) – 2 locations - $4,000 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) - $18M - $4,581 PTA - $18M cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) – $9.25M - $2,227 PTA - $200.5M cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $4.65M - $1,429 PTA - $31.1M cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $2.4M - $666 PTA - $24.5M cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) - $1.65M - $586 PTA - $30.8M cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) – $1.36M - $545 PTA - $44M cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $775,000 - $483 PTA - $53.3M cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $560,000 - $399 PTA - $32.6M cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $250,000 - $251 PTA - $49.5M cume
10. The Visitor (Overture Films) - $160,000 - $714 PTA - $2.8M cume
11. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $140,000 - $157 PTA - $44.8M cume
12. Prom Night (Sony) - $125,000 - $222 PTA - $43.1M cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $115,000 - $777 PTA - $1.1M cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $95,000 - $642 PTA - $1.6M cume
*Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $93,000 - $100 PTA - $1.6M cume
*Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $51,000 - $560 PTA - $338,000 cume
*Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $28,000 - $966 PTA - $97,000 cume
*The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $15,000 - $1,364 PTA - $132,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $15,000 - $882 PTA - $162,000 cume
*NEW – Reprise (Miramax) - $10,950 - $3,650 PTA - $10,950 cume
*NEW – My Father the Lord (Kino) - $5,208 - $868 PTA - $5,208 cume
*Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $3,750 - $1,250 PTA - $12,000 cume
*NEW – Yella (Cinema Guild) - $2,198 - $1,099 PTA - $2,198 cume
*America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $1,590 - $1,590 PTA - $10,000 cume
*NEW – Sangre de Mi Sangre (IFC Films) - $1,698 - $1,698 PTA - $1,698 cume
*Noise (ThinkFilm) - $1,182 - $591 PTA - $8,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) - $51.3M - $13,057 PTA - $51.3M cume
2. Iron Man (Paramount) – $33M - $7,944 PTA - $224.3M cume
3. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $13.75M - $4,224 PTA - $40.2M cume
4. Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $8.1M - $2,246 PTA - $30.2M cume
5. Made of Honor (Sony) - $5.3M - $1,882 PTA - $34.5M cume
6. Baby Mama (Universal) – $4.48M - $1,793 PTA - $47.1M cume
7. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $2.5M - $1,561 PTA - $55M cume
8. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $1.63M - $1,166 PTA - $33.7M cume
9. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $1M - $1,005 PTA - $50.2M cume
10. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $680,000 - $761 PTA - $45.3M cume
11. The Visitor (Overture Films) - $650,000 - $2,902 PTA - $3.3M cume
12. Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $450,000 - $3,041 PTA - $1.5M cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $430,000 - $2,905 PTA - $2M cume
*Prom Night (Sony) - $390,000 - $694 PTA - $43.4M cume
*Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $300,000 - $322 PTA - $1.8M cume
*Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $230,000 - $2,527 PTA - $517,000 cume
*Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $115,000 - $3,966 PTA - $184,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $75,000 - $4,412 PTA - $222,000 cume
*The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $50,000 - $4,545 PTA - $167,000 cume
*NEW – Reprise (Miramax) - $40,000 - $13,333 PTA - $40,000 cume
*NEW – My Father the Lord (Kino) - $18,000 - $3,000 PTA - $18,000 cume
*Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $14,000 - $4,667 PTA - $23,000 cume
*NEW – Yella (Cinema Guild) - $8,000 - $4,000 PTA - $8,000 cume
*America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $7,500 - $7,500 PTA - $16,000 cume
*NEW – Sangre de Mi Sangre (IFC Films) - $6,250 - $6,250 - $6,250 cume
*Noise (ThinkFilm) - $4,500 - $2,250 PTA - $11,200 cume

FRIDAY 6PM: Just got off the phone with 2 competing studios, and they agree that The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) is looking soft. It appears that the sequel to the mega-hit The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe is unlikely to get much past $20M today, and one source has the film headed for $17.5M. That would be considered a disappointment given that the first Narnia delivered $23M on opening day. The early 3-day estimates range from $51M-$56M.

Both sources are forecasting outstanding holds for the 3rd weekend of Iron Man (Paramount). It appears that Marvel’s film will top $30M for a weekend take in the $32M-$34M range. That would represent a far less-than-expected of 34%-38%, and I have been told that if this number holds, Iron Man has a real shot at $300M domestic.

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