| |
[Jun. 30th, 2008|05:07 pm] |
|
John McCain picks former econ professor as VP candidate!! |
|
|
| converting chained figures |
[Jun. 24th, 2008|01:43 pm] |
hello!
I was wondering and hoping if someone here could help me with a small problem im having. I'm working with GDP and industry classifications. My problem is that I have two tables, one from the years 1997-2004 in chained 1997 dollars and the other table from 2002 - 2007 in chained 2002 tables. I do not have the raw nominal numbers for any of the above figures (I can obtain these but not for all the industries im analyzing)
My question is that, is there a way to combine the two tables to provide one consistent table from 1997 - 2007? or will i definitely require nominal data for this.
Thanks so much! :) |
|
|
| some questions for you "nontraditionalists" |
[Jun. 23rd, 2008|03:50 pm] |
I recently had a discussion with some friends about "Predictably Irrational" (which I haven't read, btw) and I have some unanswered questions. I apologize for the vagueness of the questions, but I think that a large part of the debate comes from the fact that there are no commonly-agreed-upon definitions, and so people talk across purposes. Please feel free to assert your own definitions; it'd be helpful to me, at least.
1) What's the distinction between Behavioral economics and Experimental economics?
2) What is "traditional" economics?
3) How are behavioral and experimental economics distinct from (or maybe: what do they add to) "traditional" economics?
4) To what extent is the behavioral\experimental critique just saying: "traditional utility functions just don't have enough arguments (inputs) in them"? I always walk away from discussions of behavioral/experimental econ (and, for that matter, of "heterodox" econ more generally) thinking that their innovations are oversold. It's not that they're wrong (Lord knows lots of interesting facets of human behavior have been discovered this way), but that a lot of the "discoveries" are things that anyone who has thought about Econ beyond Principles already knows or suspects. That models are NOT, and are (almost) never taken to be, reality - they are a baseline from which to analyze it. Start with the model, see how people actually behave, and see what the model does and doesn't explain. Is this not how "traditional" economists (of which, I probably am one) think? Or am I missing the point of behavioral/experimental/heterodox econ? |
|
|
| Buffett's bet |
[Jun. 16th, 2008|12:29 pm] |
Note: This is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation and therefore many of the assumptions like constant returns may be as useful as a holey umbrella in a hurricane. However, it is an interesting bet and
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/04/news/newsmakers/buffett_bet.fortune/index.htm
Will a collection of hedge funds, carefully selected by experts, return more to investors over the next 10 years than the S&P 500?
That question is now the subject of a bet between Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and Protégé Partners LLC, a New York City money management firm that runs funds of hedge funds - in other words, a firm whose existence rests on its ability to put its clients' money into the best hedge funds and keep it out of the underperformers.
You can guess which party is taking which side.
Protégé has placed its bet on five funds of hedge funds - specifically, the averaged returns that those vehicles deliver net of all fees, costs, and expenses.
On the other side, Buffett, who has long argued that the fees that such "helpers" as hedge funds and funds of funds command are onerous and to be avoided has bet that the returns from a low-cost S&P 500 index fund sold by Vanguard will beat the results delivered by the five funds that Protégé has selected.
Here is a quick and dirty assessment. I used constant annualized returns over 10 years and the article's cost figures. Yes, there are bad assumptions here like constant returns, but excel has its limitations, so accept this as a rough guide.
it goes without saying that in a long term bear market (around 0% growth) the index fund beats the hedge fund
If the market returns 2% and the hedge returns 5%, the market wins. (150 diff%)
If the market returns 6% and the hedge returns 10%, the market wins. (66 diff%)
If the market returns 10% and the hedge returns 15%, the market wins. (50 diff%)
If the hedge can return 20%, it wins, unless the market returns 14%
Since market returns between 2-10% are most likely, I listed those results. The hedge funds must beat the market by around 66% percent of the market return to win the bet. In the time period prior that Protege and Buffett looked at, the market returned 64% while the hedge fund gained 95%. This is for a net rate of 48% greater for the hedge fund.
The bet would appear to slightly favor Buffett given a down market to start off the betting years. In down markets, index funds retain larger shares of their capital due to lower fees than hedge funds (which on average lose more as their fees are higher and most funds do not beat the market in any particular year, noting exception which Prodigy may be in the future, but who knows? |
|
|
| Energy Market Manipulation |
[Jun. 12th, 2008|11:35 pm] |
The recent Senate Hearing on Energy Market Manipulation was emblematic of the anger displayed against the actions of hedge funds and other institutional actors in the energy market. Multiple people testified that opaque foreign markets were being abused to allow institutions to engage in market manipulation of American energy commodites due a lack of transparency and disclosure in these foreign markets.
Can somebody explain to me what constitutes illegal market manipulation and how it is distinct from legitimate speculation? The panelists are suggesting that institutional investors are engaging in something more sinister than purchasing energy futures contracts on margin, but I don't know what they mean. (They keep mentioning the Enron loophole which is another term I'm not familiar with.) |
|
|
| Thesis Topic Help! |
[Jun. 12th, 2008|08:53 pm] |
Hello guys!
I'm on my final year as economics student and I'm currently taking up Economics 199 (Thesis). I do have a big problem because two of my Research Topic Proposals had been rejected by my thesis adviser. I came here to ask for suggestions on other thesis topics in Economics that I could pursue.
ETA: My fields of specialization are Development Economics, Public Econ, and Labor Economics.
My first proposal was about how gender inequality in division of labor affects economic growth. The second was about the impacts of spending on education and research and development (this was supposed to be a cross-country analysis). Both got rejected.
We will be given one semester (roughly about four months) to finish the thesis. It's a full-blown research (complete with lit review, data gathering (both primary/secondary), and analysis.
Hope you can help. Thanks.=) |
|
|
| |
[Jun. 5th, 2008|12:14 pm] |
Note:
This will likely be xposted at GetRichSlowly.Org next week. I'm interviewing David Gardner, founder of the Motley Fool, tomorrow. I'm also going to be talking to some Urban/Regional Economists next week. Since this is likely of some interest and is at least somewhat related to economics, I thought Id just post it up for info.
Cheers.
Thoughts on the Motley Fool Focus Group When I was in high school, I participated in my state’s stock market game. It was designed to introduce our economics class to the world of investing. That’s where I first heard of the Motley Fool, which at the time was an upstart website for financial investors and went against the grain of having advisors manage your money. Rather, I remembered their newsletter analyzed the advantages of managing one’s investments themselves, and advocated index funds over managed funds.
( Read more... )
|
|
|
| Military salaries? |
[May. 28th, 2008|10:40 pm] |
Forgive my ignorance (and sorry if this is not quite what this community was made for. I just figured economists would be best suited to answer this question), but:
1) Would it be safe to say that the average military salary is artificially low? Also;
2) Are private contractors such as Blackwater an accurate benchmark for what would be if the military was not monopolized by the government (and no, I am not looking to argue that the military should be privatized. I'm just curious.) I realize most Blackwater personnel do not receive the same benefits that government military personnel do, but all the same, answers would be appreciated. |
|
|
| Hello from a possible econ student. |
[May. 27th, 2008|03:24 pm] |
| [ | mood |
| |  curious | ] |
| [ | music |
| | (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction - The Rolling Stones | ] |
Hey everyone, I'm currently going back to school and since I am interested in economics I decided to join this group. I took both High School economics as well as Microeconomics at college and I I have always had interest in economics since around middle school. I like how logical and structured it is and how it is so broad and analytical with many extremely interesting social issues at the same time. I feel it sheds light on so many things not the least politics. I'm very interested in politics and I think studying economics might give me insight on many issues ( right now I'm a left-libertarian who is a registered Democrat supporting Obama) I don't have very good math skills but I do want to develop them and I hope it doesn't mess me up too bad.
I also feel it is good for my personality because it is so logical and it seems nerdy...I have Asperger's which is called the geek syndrome and I have heard it is over-represented among economists.
So that's some background on my interest with economics.
Does anyone have any words of wisdom?
What would someone majoring in economics say to someone who wants to?
About skills needed or what it is like...
Just curious... |
|
|
| Numeric Methods in Matlab |
[May. 17th, 2008|10:27 am] |
| [ | mood |
| | confused | ] |
Hi everyone!
I'm doing a little assigment for monday. The question is to solve the ODE: y'-3y=5 by using Runge Kutta 2 method in Matlab. I'm a newbie in this program. The idea is to program the function, I mean, not using the ODE functions to solve it. Any ideas anyone?
Thanks in advance! |
|
|
| The "Why" of Economics |
[May. 17th, 2008|01:39 am] |
I would like to pose to you all the question of "why".
Could someone please explain to me in some detail, why it is that we always need 'more', 'greater', 'better' economic growth? Why do we always have to grow? What are we growing into? And in a world with such amazing wealth as today, would we not be better off working on managing our money better, spreading the wealth around, instead of pushing for more growth which only builds wealth for the already-rich? |
|
|
| In Need of a Little Help |
[May. 6th, 2008|04:58 pm] |
| [ | mood |
| | confused | ] |
Hi everyone. I'm finishing up the semester, and have received a study guide for my International Economics II course. I'm doing fine with most of the questions, but having a little trouble figuring one out (mostly because the book is pretty bad, and poorly organized, and the teacher is a grad student and has pretty much failed at teaching in lectures) and was hoping you guys could provide a little direction, the main aspects, or whatever. I just need help with the basics, and then I should be able to figure out the specifics/details.
so here's the question:
Imagine a world with two large countries, Home and Foreign. Evaluate how Home's macroeconomic policies affect Foreign. Compare the small and the large country cases; consider both permanent monetary and fiscal policies. (sic)
Thanks to anyone who can help. |
|
|
| Berkshire-Hathaway Annual Report |
[May. 5th, 2008|02:44 pm] |
I'm almost always interested in their report. Their meeting was this week, and next year it's my goal next year to attend the meeting. I've got my B class shares, which means I can sit in, but I can't ask questions. One has to be an A class shareholder for that.
Here's the link for what Buffett said.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/sharehold.html
|
|
|
| Foreign Exchange and some Mental Strain. |
[May. 3rd, 2008|02:29 am] |
I wrote this as an email to a coworker from Accounting. I'll post this in mostly unmodified form to this group, because I think it brings up some interesting issues. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the facts or theories behind the issue, or on my conclusions about the issue.
Some time ago, we talked about going over a balance sheet, so I could learn a little bit about how to read one.
Well, this is a doozy. It's the 20F yearly report for LDK Solar. Not particularly a good one for a beginner, so I'm just wondering if you can take a look at the following excerpt and think about it. If you can come up with a good way to understand it, I'd love to hear. Don't worry about the pecific numbers. I'm thinking along the lines of trying to work out the relationship between stock price in US Dollars and the relative valuations of the Dollar, the RMB, and the Euro, where the RMB and Dollar are largely pegged, and the business assets are split between all three currencies.
Note: I think I'm starting to get it. I'm putting some notes at the bottom of this email.
From: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1385424/000114554908000792/h02099e6vk.htm#118
Here's the Relevant Section:
-------------
ITEM 11. QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risks
Foreign currency risk
Our financial statements are expressed in U.S. dollars but the functional currency of our principal operating subsidiaries, Jiangxi LDK Solar, Jiangxi LDK PV Silicon and Jiangxi LDK Polysilicon, is Renminbi. To the extent our principal PRC operating subsidiaries hold assets or liabilities denominated in foreign currencies, any appreciation of Renminbi against such foreign currencies denominated assets or depreciation of Renminbi against foreign currencies denominated liabilities could result in a charge to our income statement. See note (2)(c) to our audited consolidated financial statements for more information on foreign currency translations for our financial reporting purposes under Item 18 in this report.
A significant portion of our sales is denominated in Renminbi. Our costs and capital expenditures are largely denominated in U.S. dollars and euros. The Renminbi is not freely convertible into other currencies and conversion of the Renminbi into foreign currencies is subject to rules and regulations of foreign exchange control promulgated by the PRC government. In July 2005, the PRC government introduced a managed floating exchange rate system to
allow the Renminbi to fluctuate within a regulated band based on market supply and demand and by reference to a basket of foreign currencies. The PRC government has since made, and may in the future continue to make, further adjustments to its exchange rate system.
Generally, appreciation of Renminbi against U.S. dollars and euro will result in foreign exchange losses for monetary assets denominated in U.S. dollars and euro and result in foreign exchange gains for monetary liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars and euro. Conversely, depreciation of Renminbi against U.S. dollars and euro will generally result in foreign exchange gains for monetary assets denominated in U.S. dollars and euro and result in foreign exchange losses for monetary liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars and euro. ( Read more... ) |
|
|
| The Gas Tax...Attaxs |
[May. 2nd, 2008|02:54 pm] |
Hi. I wanted a way to introduce myself to the community without a shameless plug, so I'm crossposting an entry on the "gas tax holiday". I have noticed that this community gets alot of personal finance questions (which, aren't exactly in the realm of economics per se). My very brief vitae is that I've been an economist in the woefully bureaucratic US Department of Justice for the past 6 years, and I worked on GetRichSlowly.org (a fairly popular PF blog) for the last two. I'm blogging as a way to get used to writing profusely again as I go back to school (one can never have too many degrees piled higher and deeper).
Cheers.
------
(Cross-posted to my LJ)
Let me just say, unequivocally, on the record, that a "Gas Tax Holiday" has got to be one of the most idiotic, downright stupid, embarassing, shallow, pointless proposals to help our economy of this entire deplorable primary season.
Here's the deal. Senators McCain and Clinton want to roll back the 18 cent a gallon gas tax for the summer. Senator Obama and President Bush, along with nearly every single economist and newspaper editorial board of either political persuasion, oppose it.
First, the net benefit to the average household? 50 bucks.
The cost?
Under Sen McCain's plan? 5 billion dollars, to be paid for with future taxes. Probably on our children. Guess we can officially bury the "fiscal conservative" wing of the Republican party. So long guys, you had a nice run in 94!
And in the meantime, we lose 5 billion dollars towards the interstate highway maintenance fund. Yeah, our interstates sure look pristine and un-needing of maintenance, don't they.
Under Sen Clinton's plan? She replaces the tax on gas with a tax on the oil companies' windfall profits. Thusly, she (and her husband, a Rhodes Scholar in economics who should know better, but is making me think less of Rhodes scholars daily) moves the tax burden from the consumer, to the producer.
Except, that's not how taxes work. The tax on profits would be passed on right back to the consumer. Not entirely all of it, but a good bit of it. Simple microeconomics theory tells us that. That no less than Paul Krugman and Greg Mankiw agree on this point should be proof enough of its stupidity.
Yet, it appears that the promise of 50 dollars a month is enough to move votes. Even if it means we continue to mortgage our so-called good times on the soon to be sweaty backs of our laboring children.
The sad reality is that Senators McCain and Clinton are gaining support for this platform.
I'm not worried. If things get really bad in 20 years, we're packing up to St. Eustatius and becoming Dutch |
|
|
| Thoughts? |
[Apr. 29th, 2008|02:50 pm] |
| [ | music |
| | Lamb of God - Walk With Me in Hell | ] |
For Greenspan, Gold Once Glittered.
Particularly, I would like to hear your thoughts on the solutions proposed on the last page. That is, allow for other money backed by gold and silver to act as a competitor to the U.S. dollar and give people an option as to which tender they would rather trade in.
As a tangential issue, I believe this also somewhat up for debate in regards to the Liberty Dollar with whom the Federal Reserve has a beef with at the moment. They are claiming that it is used as barter, whereas the Feds say that they are pushing it as legal tender. Interestingly enough, the raid of Liberty Dollar headquarters only occurred after they started printing Ron Paul dollars, but that's probably (hopefully) just coincidental. |
|
|
| Book Question. |
[Apr. 29th, 2008|01:44 pm] |
For my birthday, my dad got me "The Total Money Makeover: A Proven Plan For Financial Fitness" (2007 Edition) by Dave Ramsey.
I looked up information about DR on Wikipedia. It said that he has a BS degree in finance and real estate from the Univ. Of Tennessesse, has built and loss one fortune to built another using his current financal plans.
Has anyone read this book? Or know anymore about him?
Thanks. |
|
|
| economics |
[Apr. 29th, 2008|09:42 pm] |
Ok people I am so lost right now...my professor in economics gave us this question, and I have no idea what to do! This is literally ALL he gave us!:
" The US is experiencing an economic slowdown due to the recession. Assess, in the light of relevant theory, the consequences of this situation for the sales of yachts costing 400,000 dollars or more"
What could I start off with and mention? It's just a mini-essay basically...the deadline is tomorrow :X Any tips or suggestions would be greatly appreciated. |
|
|
| |
[Apr. 28th, 2008|07:46 pm] |
|
What are some good free sites to read news and analysis from the FX markets? |
|
|
![[info]](http://p-stat.livejournal.com/img/community.gif){kind=small}
economics