Three opportunities show themselves.

The first is suggested by the Canadian global model, and suggests a weak tropical system moving on shore east of the Florida Big Bend area.




The second is suggested by the GFDL model, which anticipates the rapid (<72 hrs) development of a hurricane in the East Pacific, which makes landfall and migrates into the Gulf of Mexico.





Both are kind of a long shot.

2007 Hurricane Names

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Chantal? Rebekah?
Do they have teenage mothers naming the storms?

"We have increased our forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, largely due to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions. We are now calling for a very active hurricane season. Landfall probabilities for the 2007 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages."

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/april2007/

The next one will be out 31 May.

First, the context.

If you don't know how to read this, ask, and someone will explain :)

Okay, so I'm watching the long-term GFS model, and I'm watching, with a bit of remorse, Helene head out to sea. So we expected that. And here comes ANOTHER tropical wave off the African coast, at about the 72 hour mark. *sigh*. And there's that sad little Bermuda high, getting tagged by two successive strong-ish storms. I watched the loop a couple times, and I was about to close out the map.

But then something caught my eye at about 27N 95W, loop from 84hr-144hr.

Not to scare anyone or anything.

We need some chatter, people.
I need to know if I am reading this thing correctly.

It looks like the models are straightening out that hook, so once the path jumps back into the Gulf it will move/jump further out, right?
As in, the westward movement won't be the same small increments that were seeing now, right?
I keep thinking about it like a second hand running counter-clockwise.

And also- if it does stay more out in the gulf and we end up with a panhandle hit, when do ya'll think that will be?

Dutch's plane is due 1 PM Thursday, which would be too late to help prep here, or really to evac without being in horrible traffic. Also, I don't think the AF would allow him to fly in to an area they've evac-ed. ((thinking out loud here))

Do I really need to be worried about this, or is Ernesto going to keep to the East?

Incidentally: What a lousy time for Max Mayfield to retire :\

[image]
This is the 18z GFDL run, pointing Ernesto as a Category 4 storm at Louisiana.

This is the 00z GFDL run, pointing Ernesto as a Category 4 storm at Pensacola/Mobile.



The CMC mirrors this track exactly.

The GFS doesn't seem to have much faith in the storm, and the NHC seems to be discounting it.

The FSU MM5 model puts it in the gulf as a decent-sized Category 2 storm, and builds it in the Gulf. (surprise.)

The UKMET model dissipates the storm almost instantly. This model, predictably, is being discounted.

NOGAPS (US Navy) puts a TD in the GOM. Also discounted by NHC.


In short: EVERYBODY PANIC.

Check out TD5. It's really developed a decent amount of deeper convection overnight, and looks to be rapidly approaching TS strength.

( 5AM EDT NHC discussion... )

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Invest # 97L, an area of disturbed weather threatening the Windward Islands. From the NHC discussion:


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS
FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND
57W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM ON THURSDAY.
RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

[end NHC discussion, resume Sean's commentary]

The GFDL and the ever-optimistic CMC are forecasing this storm to develop into at least a category 2 hurricane. The CMC currently predicts the storm will take a westerly path, crossing over the furthest reaches of Western Cuba before forming a category 2 hurricane and approaching Texas. The GFDL takes an WNW track. Storm organization is predicted within 36 hours. The GFDL moves the storm north of Cuba, develops hurricane-force winds at 66 hours out, approaching the Bahamas and developing into a Category 2 storm by the 120 hour mark.

Forecasted water temperatures and shear remain highly conducive for tropical storm development in the next 36-72 hours. Should this storm become a threat to our area, it would do so in 5-7 days. Please ensure your hurricane preparations are ready to be rushed to completion as this storm approaches.

[damn, and gas prices were just starting to get lower, too.]

x-post to LJ

We're looking at TD4 now, folks.

From the 11PM EDT advisory, 21 August:

As a result...I am not too
enthralled with the model solutions...and we may see the cyclone
turn out to be more of a west-runner than a recurver through the
strong subtropical ridge located to the north. Water vapor imagery
as well as water vapor-derived winds and upper-air data from the
Cape Verde Islands suggest that the mid-level easterly flow on the
south side of the ridge is stronger than the models have been
forecasting...and the ridge to the north also appears to be
building westward. The forecast track was shifted to the west of
the previous advisory...but not as far west as the Cliper model and
statistical-dynamical models out of respect for the skill of the
global models. However...if TD-4 does not make it as far north as
20n latitude within 4 days...then the cyclone will likely miss the
weakness in the ridge that all the models forecast to develop.

Tropical depression-force winds extend out past 100nm from the center of circulation...
(source)

[exit NHC, enter Sean's Opinion]

...indicating that when this thing gets it together, it's gonna be HUGE.

Keep an eye on this one, folks.

"Hurricane Katrina was a hurricane disaster for southern Mississsippi. In Lousiana, it was a healthy hurricane hit... and a levee design/engineering/maintenance/operation debacle.... compounded by a FEMA fiasco.... There is very little, if any, reason to think that New Orleans experienced more than a Category 1 hurricane."

-Hurricane Almanac 2006, Bryan Norcross


Finally someone sets the record straight.
And let me say it again: Hurricane Katrina was a hurricane disaster for southern Mississippi.

The GFS model has been consistently developing a system coming out of the Cape Verde islands over the past three or four model runs, although the number and exact track of any systems is at this point highly uncertain.

Latest model run as of this posting:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006082000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Watch the low pressure systems roll off the African coast. That's at about the 54 hour mark. We're getting towards model runs equalling ... well, not certainty, but definitely increased likelyhood. Especially considering it's the GFS.


x-post to my lj.

We're now looking at TS Chris. Movement is WNW at 9 mph. Minimum central pressure is 1009mb, down 2 mb from 8 hours ago. Maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Model consensus suggests a Cuba intercept right now, although the models are doing a really, really poor job of initializing this storm. Two of five call for dissipation within 24 hours, and that's not going to happen.

This will be worth examining again tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center has declared our lil' friend 99l to be TD 3, potentially destined to be Tropical Storm Chris in the next 12-24 hours. It's going to have to combat a large upper-level low to make it anywhere near the US, though. (See the big spinny thing to the wes-northwest of TD 3? that's an upper level low. It's bad for tropical systems.)

On the other hand, it's already fought through 20-30kt wind shear and a metric arseload of Saharan dustclouds. That and the ULL is kinda sorta forecast to move.

Carry on.

At this time, a tropical wave has formed off the coast of Africa. The
visible satellite-derived apparent center of circulation is at
approximately 32.5 W, 7.2 N, or approximately 1800 nautical miles (2100
statue miles) east-southeast of Puerto Rico, moving west at
approximately 20-25kts / 27-33mph. ETA to Puerto Rico seems to be
approximately 3 days.

visible satellite loop

The potential for tropical development of this system seems to be high,
as shear values ahead of the storm are predicted to be low, and the
storm is surrounded in the local region by moderately warm water
temperatures and low shear. 99l will be slowing developing as it moves
over warmer water.

This system should be considered over the long rung; should it affect
the Gulf of Mexico, it will do so in 7-10 days. Expect advisories from
the National Weather Service to begin in 24-48 hours regarding this
system.

Basic models seem to continue tracking this system west-northwestward,
although the predominant motion is definitely westward. Tropical
development models at this time do not seem to initialize this system
well, and further data (i.e., time) is probably required before we can
make any sort of assessment based on tropical development models; even
the normally-aggressive Canadian model does not initialize this system
well.

model runs mostly based on climatology, i.e., pulled from the collective arse of the NHC

Factors in track prediction include the development of a high pressure
system over the northern Atlantic, forecast to weaken and withdraw from
the tropics. Also a potential factor is a strong front moving off the
east coast of the US. While 99l will not be affected by this front, a
less vigorous tropical wave off the southeastern coast of Cuba will be.

QUIKSCAT wind analysis


And now you know.

Storm's taking a more northward track than previously expected. NHC says it looks to make landfall south of Tallahassee.



I have this gut feeling that it'll shift further westward before all said and done, but that's just because I have an unhealthy weather paranoia complex ;)

Meanwhile, surf's up around here :D

Niiiice.
Let central Florida chew on it.
I think this is God punishing those alligators what-were eatin' the peoples last month.

GFS, GFDL and CMC are all forecasting florida storm in ~5 days. CMC got it first, though. Time to sit up and pay attention.

My prediction: Cat 1 hurricane over the gulf eddy. weakening maybe to a TS by landfall, which will be in ~110 hours between pensacola and apalachicola.

Get your hurricane supplies together.

Behind the cut, you'll find links, answers to FAQs, and a few explainations of some technical jibber-jabber you might run into here.

( No, I think that's the same cow. )

Welcome to the Category Six community. This community is for Northwest Floridians who have an interest in tropical weather. In this community, you will find speculation, advice, and various crazy and weather-obsessed people.

( A few notes... )

Current Mood: on lortab